Canada - 2003
StarMine present Canada's Top Analysts of 2003
StarMine, the leading provider of objective ratings of securities analysts, is pleased to announce the results of StarMine's 2003 annual survey of analyst performance for Canada. StarMine measures analysts' performance based on the return of their stock recommendations and the accuracy of their earnings estimates. The 2003 StarMine Analyst Awards program utilized the I/B/E/S system as its data source.
Analyst Spotlight: Steve Laciak
The overall winner, Steve Laciak of National Bank Financial, covers stocks in a variety of industries including building products, chemicals, and commercial services. While the stocks he followed were on average up 24 percent last year, Mr. Laciak's portfolio (created by over-weighting his strong buys and buys and under-weighting his holds and sells) was up 59 percent, beating his personal coverage benchmark by a full 35 percentage points. Mr. Laciak made excellent calls, both bullish and bearish. For example, Emco Ltd. was up 47 percent during the periods he had a Buy on it, Masonite Inc. up 47 percent, and Husky Injection Molding Systems up 104 percent. Meanwhile, a portfolio of stocks constructed from Mr. Laciak's lowest ratings would have returned a loss of 30 percent.
Methodology: View our awards methodology
| StarMine Analyst Awards Methodology | |
| StarMine objectively measures
the performance of sell side analysts based on the returns of their
buy/sell recommendations and the accuracy of their earnings
estimates. The 2003 awards are based on the performance of
recommendations on Canadian securities during calendar year
2002. Data Source StarMine's Canadian awards are based on the recommendations as recorded in the Thomson Financial First Call database. StarMine used the GICS (Global Industry Classification System) for its industry definitions. StarMine has worked extensively with its installed base of blue-chip institutional investors and global investment banks to perfect its metrics, now used in the compensation reviews of over 20 percent of the world's publishing analysts. Stock Picking Awards StarMine has developed two methods, based on different benchmarks, of measuring overall analyst stock-picking performance. StarMine's Absolute Return metric assumes that a "Buy" recommendation corresponds to an analyst expectation that the stock will have a positive absolute return and a "Sell" recommendation a negative absolute return; that is, cash is the benchmark. In contrast, StarMine's Excess Return builds a long-only portfolio around the analyst recommendations using an overweight / equal-weight / underweight strategy, where the benchmark is the analyst's coverage universe. Absolute Return rewards analysts with a good sense for the overall direction of the individual stocks in their portfolios. Excess Return rewards analysts who successfully distinguish their top-performing stocks from their bottom-performing stocks, regardless of broader market or industry movements. Both measures are important for a complete understanding of an analyst's performance. Absolute Return StarMine measures how much investors would have made had they built a non-leveraged portfolio around all of the analyst's picks, by investing 1 unit in each Buy recommendation, 2 units in each Strong Buy, 1 unit in cash for each Hold, short selling 1 unit in each Sell recommendation, and shorting 2 units in each Strong Sell recommendation. The portfolio is rebalanced each month and whenever the analyst adds coverage, drops coverage, or changes a rating. Excess Return StarMine's Excess Return measures how well analyst recommendations distinguish among the stocks in the analyst's coverage universe. For example, do the Strong Buys outperform the Buys, and so on? It is computed as the difference between an analyst's Recommendation-Weighted Return and his Coverage Return. The Recommendation-Weighted Return is computed as a non-leveraged, long-only portfolio of all stocks in an analyst's coverage using an overweight / equal-weight / underweight strategy. StarMine invests 4 units in each Strong Buy recommendation, 2 units in each Buy, 1 unit in each Hold, ½ unit in each Sell, and ¼ unit in each Strong Sell. The portfolio is rebalanced each month and whenever the analyst adds coverage, drops coverage, or changes a rating. Because the portfolio is constructed using relative weights, it is equally effective for analysts who use three recommendation levels (buy, hold, sell) and for analysts who use five recommendation levels (strong buy, buy, hold, sell, strong sell). Coverage Return is a personal benchmark for each analyst, indicating how a portfolio would have done had the analyst simply put a Buy recommendation on all of the stocks in his coverage. It is computed by investing equal amounts in each covered stock during the period that the analyst covered it. The portfolio is rebalanced at the end of every month and when an analyst adds or drops coverage. Because the Recommendation-Weighted Return and the Coverage Return are always fully invested, the difference between them, or Excess Return, is not subject to the overall direction of the market. StarMine's Overall Rating In order to fairly compare analyst skill across disparate industries with different variance and returns characteristics, StarMine computes a ratio that is the Excess Return divided by a measure of the dispersion of the returns of the stocks in the analyst's coverage universe. The resulting measure isolates the skill of the analyst in distinguishing among the stocks in his coverage, and is independent of the direction of the market, the industries covered, or the variance across the particular stocks. StarMine sorts all analysts in its database according to the ratio and determines the corresponding StarMine star rating by awarding the top 10% of analysts 5 stars, the next 22.5% 4 stars, the next 35% 3 stars, the next 22.5% 4 stars, and the bottom 10% 1 star. The Overall Top Stock Picking Awards To determine the overall top 10 list, StarMine started with its database of over 600 Canadian analysts for whom StarMine computes ratings. StarMine required that each analyst covered at least 9 stocks throughout the year and earned a positive Absolute Return. StarMine then ranked the remaining analysts by their overall StarMine rating, as described above. This ensured that all of our top 10 winners performed well on both absolute and relative measures-they called the overall direction of their coverage correctly and successfully differentiated between their best and worst stocks-translating into unambiguously outstanding performances. The Industry Stock Picking Awards To qualify for an industry ranking, an analyst had to cover at least 5 stocks in the industry for at least 90% of 2002. In addition, analysts had to have as much coverage as at least 80% of the other analysts following the industry to ensure a minimum level of comparability among the analysts. Qualifying analysts were then ranked based on their Absolute Return within each specific industry. |
Trophies: Place an order
StarMine present Canada's Top Analysts of 2003
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm | Industries |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Laciak, Steve | National Bank Financial | Various |
| 2 | Zicha, Anthony | Scotia Capital | Trading Companies & Distributors |
| 3 | Howe, Maureen E | RBC Capital Markets | Gas Utilities |
| 4 | Molyneaux, Martin | FirstEnergy Capital | Oil & Gas |
| 5 | Feick, Robert | National Bank Financial | Oil & Gas |
| 6 | Konzuk, Jason | FirstEnergy Capital | Energy Equipment & Services |
| 7 | Schwarz, Ron | CIBC World Markets | Commercial Services & Supplies |
| 8 | Christie, Brian | Canaccord Capital | Metals & Mining |
| 9 | Atkinson, Stephen | BMO Nesbitt Burns | Paper & Forest Products |
| 10 | Allan, Barry | Research Capital Corporation | Metals & Mining |
Auto Components
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novak, John P | TD Newcrest Intl. |
| 2 | Sklar, Peter | BMO Nesbitt Burns |
Banks
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bantis, James D | CS First Boston |
| 2 | Cohen, Susan | Dundee Securities |
| 3 | Choquette, Kevin | Scotia Capital |
Biotechnology & Pharmaceuticals
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordonez, Cosme | Dlouhy Merchant Group |
| 2 | Love, Catherine | Research Capital Corporation |
| 3 | Uddin, Andre | Research Capital Corporation |
Energy Equipment & Services
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Konzuk, Jason | FirstEnergy Capital |
| 2 | Benner, Dana | National Bank Financial |
Food Products & Retail
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rose-Martel, Cynthia | Jennings Capital Inc. |
| 2 | Caicco, Perry | CIBC World Markets Inc. |
| 3 | Howlett, Keith | Desjardins Securities |
Insurance
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | De Verteuil, Ian | BMO Nesbitt Burns |
| 2 | Cawley, Steve | TD Newcrest Intl. |
Media
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Henderson, John K | Scotia Capital |
| 2 | Horan, Andrea | RBC Capital Markets/Westwind Partners Inc. |
| 3 | Casey, Tim | BMO Nesbitt Burns |
Metals & Mining
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Topping, George | Sprott Securities Inc. |
| 2 | Hodaly, Haytham | Salman Partners Inc. |
| 3 | Christie, Brian | Canaccord Capital |
Oil & Gas
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Smith, Steven R | Yorkton Securities |
| 2 | Tsubouchi, Dan | Griffiths, McBurney & Partners |
| 3 | Molyneaux, Martin | FirstEnergy Capital |
Paper & Forest Products
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carter, Reid | National Bank Financial |
| 2 | Atkinson, Stephen | BMO Nesbitt Burns |
| 3 | Laprade, Benoit | Scotia Capital |
Real Estate
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | O'Rourke, Michael | Scotia Capital |
| 2 | Smith, Michael | National Bank Financial |
Software
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wright, David W | BMO Nesbitt Burns |
| 2 | Penner, Scott | TD Newcrest Intl. |
| 3 | Beck, David | RBC Capital Markets |
Utilities
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Howe, Maureen E | RBC Capital Markets |
| 2 | Lacey, William J | FirstEnergy Capital |
| 3 | Taylor, Karen J | BMO Nesbitt Burns |
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