Canada - 2006
The National Post and StarMine Present the Canada's Top Analysts of 2006
The National Post and StarMine, the leading provider of objective ratings of securities analysts, are pleased to announce the results of StarMine's 2006 annual survey of analyst performance for Canada. StarMine measures analysts' performance based on the return of their stock recommendations and the accuracy of their earnings estimates. The 2006 StarMine Analyst Awards program utilized the I/B/E/S system as its data source.
Spotlight on Canada's Top Large-Cap Stock Pickers
Canada's top large-cap stock picker for 2005 is Greg MacDonald of National Bank Financial. Greg earned top stock picking honors with a series of lucrative calls in the telecommunication services and media industries. His best recommendation was a "buy" on Call-Net Enterprises that soared 120% in the first quarter of the year. He also made a good "outperform" call on Rogers Communications Inc., which climbed 57% in 2005. On the downside, Greg correctly predicted the downturn of BCE after a prolonged period of upward momentum. BCE fell 16% during the six weeks in which Greg had an "underperform" recommendation on it.
Methodology: View our awards methodology
| StarMine Analyst Awards Methodology | |
| StarMine objectively measures
the performance of analysts based on the returns of their buy/sell
recommendations and the accuracy of their earnings estimates. The
2006 awards are based on the 2005 calendar-year performance of
recommendations and estimates on companies that are based in
Canada. Data Source StarMine's Canadian awards are based on the estimates and recommendations as recorded in the Thomson Financial I/B/E/S database. StarMine uses the GICS (Global Industry Classification System) for its industry definitions. In some instances in Canada, the GICS has resulted in industries that are not large enough for ranking purposes. When this has been the case, StarMine has combined multiple industries to reflect the way Canadian analysts organize their coverage. For example, StarMine's "Health Care" industry is a composite of the following GICS industries: Health Care Equipment & Supplies, Health Care Providers & Services, Biotechnology, and Pharmaceuticals. Industry Stock Picking Awards Analysts are ranked according to their Industry Excess Return, computed from a portfolio simulation that measures each analyst relative to an industry-based benchmark. The top three qualifying analysts in each industry receive an award. Calculation of Industry Excess Return All analyst returns are calculated relative to the return on a market capitalization-weighted portfolio of all of the stocks in a given industry. For comparison purposes, StarMine builds a non-leveraged portfolio for each analyst based on his recommendations. For each "Buy" recommendation, the portfolio is one unit long the stock and simultaneously one unit short the benchmark. The result gives the analyst credit for the amount by which the stock outperformed the benchmark. "Strong Buys" get a larger investment of two units long the stock and two units short the benchmark. "Holds" invest one unit in the benchmark (i.e., for an excess return of zero). "Sells" are the reverse: long the benchmark and short the stock. "Strong Sells" get a larger investment of two units long the benchmark and short the stock. The resulting portfolio is rebalanced each month and whenever the analyst adds coverage, drops coverage, or changes a rating. Qualification Criteria To qualify for a 2006 Industry Stock Picking Award, an analyst must have met the following criteria:
Overall Stock Picking Awards go to the top ten qualifying large-cap analysts and to the top five qualifying small-cap analysts, based on overall excess return. To calculate overall excess return, StarMine uses the weighted average of each analyst's Industry Excess Returns, where weighting is based on the number of stocks the analyst covers in each industry. Qualification Criteria To qualify for the overall stock-picking awards, analysts must have covered at least five stocks and the majority of the stocks in their coverage universe must be domiciled in Canada. In addition, StarMine requires analysts to have earned a 5-star rating on their overall coverage (i.e., for all industries covered), as measured by StarMine's Coverage-Relative Rating. Overview of Earnings Estimate Awards StarMine's proprietary metric, Single-stock Estimate Score (SES), measures the accuracy of each analyst's earnings forecasts. SES is a measure of relative accuracy; that is, analysts are compared against their peers. An analyst's SES can range from 0 to 100, with 50 representing the average analyst. To get a score higher than 50, an analyst must make estimates that are both significantly different from and more accurate than other analysts' estimates. SES takes into account many factors: the analyst's absolute forecast error, the analyst's error compared to other analysts, the variance of the analysts' errors, the timing of the estimates, and the absolute value of the actual earnings for the stock. SES is computed daily and aggregated to provide scores on individual stocks, industries (the Industry Estimate Score), and the analyst overall (the Overall Estimate Score). Industry Earnings Estimate Awards To determine the winners of Industry Earnings Estimate Awards, StarMine ranks qualifying analysts based on their Industry Estimate Score for the stocks in a specific industry. Qualification Criteria To qualify for this ranking, an analyst must have had coverage on at least five stocks throughout 2005. If an industry has fewer than 15 stocks, an analyst must have covered a minimum of three stocks or 1/3 of the stocks in the industry, whichever is greater. Overall Earnings Estimate Awards The ten qualifying analysts with the highest Overall Estimate Scores earn StarMine's Overall Earnings Estimate Awards. Qualification Criteria To qualify for StarMine's Top Ten list, an analyst must have had coverage on at least five stocks throughout 2005. In addition, the majority of the stocks covered by an analyst must be domiciled in Canada. Non-Participating Firms The following firm did not participate in StarMine's 2006 Annual Analyst Awards for the Canadian region: Lehman Brothers. |
Trophies: Place an order
The National Post and StarMine Present the Canada's Top Analysts of 2006
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm | Industries |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MacDonald, Greg | National Bank Financial | Telecommunications Services; Media |
| 2 | Powell, Bert | BMO Nesbitt Burns | Industrial Products |
| 3 | Duncanson, John | Jennings Capital | Paper & Forest Products |
| 4 | Rhamey, Peter | BMO Nesbitt Burns | Telecommunications Services |
| 5 | Laciak, Stephen | National Bank Financial | Industrial Products |
| 6 | Smith, Lawrence* | TD Newcrest | Metals & Mining; Chemicals & Utilities |
| 7 | Tait, Gordon | BMO Nesbitt Burns | Energy Trusts; Chemicals & Utilities |
| 8 | Cawley, Steve | TD Newcrest | Commercial Banks; Insurance; Others |
| 9 | Stoneman, Richard | Dundee Securities | Industrial Products; Software & IT Services |
| 10 | Tomalin, Patrick | Orion Securities | Energy Equipment & Services; Industrial Products |
Top Stock Pickers (Small Cap)
| Rank | Analyst | Firm | Industries |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gagel, Martin | Canaccord Adams | Industrial Products; Retail |
| 2 | McKee, Mary | CIBC World Markets | Business Trusts; Chemicals & Utilities |
| 3 | Hughes, Sarah | Sprott Securities | Industrial Products; Metals & Mining |
| 4 | Gillis, Curtis* | Canaccord Adams | Energy Trusts; Business Trusts; Others |
| 5 | Neylan, Jelena | GMP Securities | Industrial Products; Retail |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm | Industries |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flint, Philippa | RBC Capital Markets | Health Care |
| 2 | Gagliano, David | Credit Suisse First Boston | Metals & Mining |
| 3 | Radbourne, Cherilyn* | RBC Capital Markets | Industrial Products; Chemicals & Utilities |
| 4 | Rhamey, Peter | BMO Nesbitt Burns | Telecommunication Services |
| 5 | Lechem, Paul | CIBC World Markets | Software & IT Services |
| 6 | McLeish, Greg | GMP Securities | Industrial Products |
| 7 | Christie, David | TD Newcrest | Metals & Mining |
| 8 | McDonald, Bruce | Canaccord Adams | Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels |
| 9 | McReynolds, Drew | RBC Capital Markets | Diversified Financials; Insurance |
| 10 | Miehm, Douglas | RBC Capital Markets | Health Care |
Top Most Award-Winning Brokers
| Rank | Analyst | Number of Awards |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | BMO Nesbitt Burns | 20 |
| 2 | RBC Capital Markets | 18 |
| 3 | TD Newcrest | 13 |
| 4 | Canaccord Adams | 9 |
| 4 | Sprott Securities | 9 |
| 6 | Scotia Capital | 8 |
| 7 | CIBC World Markets | 7 |
| 7 | National Bank Financial | 7 |
| 9 | GMP Securities | 6 |
| 9 | Raymond James | 6 |
Auto Components
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wu, Justin | GMP Securities |
| 2 | Chamoun, Fadi | UBS |
| 3 | Sklar, Peter | BMO Nesbitt Burns |
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Whale, Macmurray | Sprott Securities |
| 2 | Wu, Justin | GMP Securities |
Business Trusts
Top Earnings Estimators
No analysts qualified for this industry's awards.Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | McKee, Mary | CIBC World Markets |
| 2 | Israel, Aleem | Sprott Securities |
| 3 | Spracklin, Walter | RBC Capital Markets |
Chemicals & Utilities (including Trusts)
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fruehauf, Winfried | National Bank Financial |
| 2 | Hastings, Robert | Canaccord Adams |
| 3 | Kanes, Sam | Scotia Capital |
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Courtright, Tony | Scotia Capital |
| 2 | Kuske, Andrew | UBS |
| 3 | Mitenko, Claire | National Bank Financial |
Commercial Banks
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Choquette, Kevin | Scotia Capital |
| 2 | Kewalramani, Sachin* | Morgan Stanley |
| 3 | Mihelic, Darko | Blackmont Capital |
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cawley, Steve | TD Newcrest |
| 2 | Keating, James | RBC Capital Markets |
| 3 | Mihelic, Darko | Blackmont Capital |
Diversified Financial Services
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | McReynolds, Drew | RBC Capital Markets |
| 2 | Reucassel, John | BMO Nesbitt Burns |
| 3 | Donville, Jason | Sprott Securities |
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Donville, Jason | Sprott Securities |
| 2 | Reucassel, John | BMO Nesbitt Burns |
| 3 | Boland, Steve | GMP Securities |
Energy Equipment & Services
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | MacKenzie, Matt | Dundee Securities |
| 2 | Serin, Roger | TD Newcrest |
| 3 | Guo, Angela | RBC Capital Markets |
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | MacKenzie, Matt | Dundee Securities |
| 2 | Bereznicki, John | Sprott Securities |
| 3 | Benner, Dana | Westwind Partners |
Energy Trusts
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tait, Gordon | BMO Nesbitt Burns |
| 2 | McDonald, Bruce | Canaccord Adams |
| 3 | Bridges, Mark | CIBC World Markets |
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | McDonald, Bruce | Canaccord Adams |
| 2 | Molnar, Kurt* | First Associates |
| 3 | Short, Don** | Raymond James |
** This analyst is no longer active in our database.
Food
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salamatian, Karim | BMO Nesbitt Burns |
| 2 | Gainer, Murray* | Scotia Capital |
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newman, David | National Bank Financial |
| 2 | Hartley, David | Blackmont Capital |
| 3 | Lai, Raymond* | Raymond James |
Health Care
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flint, Philippa | RBC Capital Markets |
| 2 | Miehm, Douglas | RBC Capital Markets |
| 3 | Charette, Christine | BMO Nesbitt Burns |
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gowd, Prakash | Canaccord Adams |
| 2 | Charette, Christine | BMO Nesbitt Burns |
| 3 | Dean, David | Sprott Securities |
Industrial Products
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Powell, Bert | BMO Nesbitt Burns |
| 2 | Radbourne, Cherilyn* | RBC Capital Markets |
| 3 | Doerksen, Cameron | Versant Partners |
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sklar, Peter | BMO Nesbitt Burns |
| 2 | Powell, Bert | BMO Nesbitt Burns |
| 3 | Hughes, Sarah | Sprott Securities |
Insurance
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | MacKinnon, Tom | Scotia Capital |
| 2 | Reucassel, John | BMO Nesbitt Burns |
| 3 | Keating, James | RBC Capital Markets |
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broad, Quentin | CIBC World Markets |
| 2 | Young, Doug | TD Newcrest |
| 3 | Boland, Steve | GMP Securities |
IT Equipment
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lee, Andrew | TD Newcrest |
| 2 | Kim, Sera | Raymond James |
| 3 | Streeter, Susan | Sprott Securities |
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kim, Daniel | Paradigm Capital |
| 2 | Hodgson, David | Genuity Capital Markets |
Media
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mitchell, Andrew | Scotia Capital |
| 2 | Bayard, Carl | Desjardins Securities |
| 3 | Anderson, Megan* | RBC Capital Markets |
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cuthbertson, Scott | TD Newcrest |
| 2 | Mogil, Ben | Westwind Partners |
| 3 | Mitchell, Andrew | Scotia Capital |
Metals & Mining
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gagliano, David | Credit Suisse First Boston |
| 2 | Christie, David | TD Newcrest |
| 3 | Davidson, David | Paradigm Capital |
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Turnbull, Trevor | Wellington West |
| 2 | Curran, Michael | RBC Capital Markets |
| 3 | Lesiak, Tony | UBS |
Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ollenberger, Randy | BMO Nesbitt Burns |
| 2 | Dutton, Brian | UBS |
| 3 | Gee, Gordon | RBC Capital Markets |
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mawdsley, John | Raymond James |
| 2 | Stepa, Allan | Dundee Securities |
| 3 | Kozak, Frederick | Haywood Securities |
Paper & Forest Products
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atkinson, Stephen | BMO Nesbitt Burns |
| 2 | Bishop, Mark | RBC Capital Markets |
| 3 | Steuart, Sean | TD Newcrest |
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skidmore, Richard | Goldman Sachs |
| 2 | Duncanson, John | Jennings Capital |
| 3 | Swetlishoff, Daryl | Raymond James |
Real Estate & REITs
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Downey, Neil | RBC Capital Markets |
| 2 | Mifsud, Gail | Raymond James |
| 3 | Damiani, Sam | TD Newcrest |
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rothschild, Mark | Genuity Capital Markets |
| 2 | Poladian, Shant | Canaccord Adams |
| 3 | Mayer, Frank | Desjardins Securities |
Retail
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nattel, Irene | RBC Capital Markets |
| 2 | Balgopal, Ryan | Scotia Capital |
| 3 | Howlett, Keith | Desjardins Securities |
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Howlett, Keith | Desjardins Securities |
| 2 | Baker, Patricia | Merrill Lynch |
| 3 | Caicco, Perry | CIBC World Markets |
Software & IT Services
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lechem, Paul | CIBC World Markets |
| 2 | Penner, Scott | TD Newcrest |
| 3 | Rhee, Lawrence* | Westwind Partners |
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tse, Richard | National Bank Financial |
| 2 | Wright, David | BMO Nesbitt Burns |
| 3 | Liston, Tom | Versant Partners |
Telecommunication Services
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rhamey, Peter | BMO Nesbitt Burns |
| 2 | Valentini, Vince | TD Newcrest |
| 3 | Lambert, David | Canaccord Adams |
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | MacDonald, Greg | National Bank Financial |
| 2 | Shio, Kona | Conscius Capital Partners |
| 3 | Rhamey, Peter | BMO Nesbitt Burns |
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