Germany - 2007
Handelsblatt and StarMine Present Germany's Top Analysts of 2007
Handelsblatt and StarMine, the leading provider of objective ratings of securities analysts, are pleased to announce the results of StarMine's 2007 annual survey of analyst performance for Germany. StarMine measures analysts' performance based on the return of their stock recommendations and the accuracy of their earnings estimates. The 2007 StarMine Analyst Awards program utilized the I/B/E/S system as its data source.
Spotlight on Germany's Top Stock Picker
Germany's top stock picker for 2006 is Christian Obst of HVB Corporates & Markets. Christian earned top honors this year with numerous profitable stock picks in his primary coverage industry, Diversified Industrials. However, his most lucrative recommendation was on Sixt, a distributor of mobility services that operates in more than 75 countries worldwide. Throughout most of the first quarter, Christian held a "buy" recommendation on Sixt. This insightful call on a hot stock chalked up an 81% return in just three months. Christian also made a handsome 68% gain on diversified technology firm ThyssenKrupp during the first eleven months of the year, when he as bullish on the stock.
Methodology: View our awards methodology
| StarMine Analyst Awards Methodology | |
| StarMine objectively measures
the performance of analysts based on the returns of their buy/sell
recommendations and the accuracy of their earnings estimates. The
2007 awards are based on the 2006 calendar-year performance of
recommendations and estimates on companies that are based in
Germany. Data Source StarMine's German awards are based on the estimates and recommendations as recorded in the Thomson Financial I/B/E/S database. StarMine uses the GICS (Global Industry Classification System) for its industry definitions. In some instances in Germany, the GICS has resulted in industries that are not large enough for ranking purposes. When this has been the case, StarMine has combined multiple industries to reflect the way German analysts organize their coverage. For example, StarMine's "Health Care" industry is a composite of the following GICS industries: Biotechnology, Health Care Equipment & Supplies, Health Care Providers & Services, Health Care Technology, Life Sciences Tools & Services, and Pharmaceuticals. Industry Stock Picking Awards Analysts are ranked according to their Industry Excess Return, computed from a portfolio simulation that measures each analyst relative to an industry-based benchmark. The top three qualifying analysts in each industry receive an award. Calculation of Industry Excess Return All analyst returns are calculated relative to the return on a market capitalization-weighted portfolio of all of the stocks in a given industry. For comparison purposes, StarMine builds a non-leveraged portfolio for each analyst based on his recommendations. For each "Buy" recommendation, the portfolio is one unit long the stock and simultaneously one unit short the benchmark. The result gives the analyst credit for the amount by which the stock outperformed the benchmark. "Strong Buys" get a larger investment of two units long the stock and two units short the benchmark. "Holds" invest one unit in the benchmark (i.e., for an excess return of zero). "Sells" are the reverse: long the benchmark and short the stock. "Strong Sells" get a larger investment of two units long the benchmark and short the stock. The portfolio return is opportunity adjusted to facilitate a fair comparison of analyst performance regardless of their coverage universe. The resulting portfolio is rebalanced each month and whenever the analyst adds coverage, drops coverage, or changes a rating. Qualification Criteria To qualify for a 2007 Industry Stock Picking Award, an analyst must have met the following criteria:
Overall Stock Picking Awards go to the top ten qualifying analysts, based on overall excess return. To calculate overall excess return, StarMine uses the weighted average of each analyst's Industry Excess Returns, where weighting is based on the number of stocks the analyst covers in each industry. Qualification Criteria To qualify for the overall stock-picking awards, analysts must have covered at least five stocks. In addition, StarMine requires analysts to have earned at least a 4-star rating on their overall coverage (i.e., for all industries covered), as measured by StarMine's Coverage-Relative Rating. Overview of Earnings Estimate Awards StarMine's proprietary metric, Single-stock Estimate Score (SES), measures the accuracy of each analyst's earnings forecasts. SES is a measure of relative accuracy; that is, analysts are compared against their peers. An analyst's SES can range from 0 to 100, with 50 representing the average analyst. To get a score higher than 50, an analyst must make estimates that are both significantly different from and more accurate than other analysts' estimates. SES takes into account many factors: the analyst's absolute forecast error, the analyst's error compared to other analysts, the variance of the analysts' errors, the timing of the estimates, and the absolute value of the actual earnings for the stock. SES is computed daily and aggregated to provide scores on individual stocks, industries (the Industry Estimate Score), and the analyst overall (the Overall Estimate Score). Industry Earnings Estimate Awards To determine the winners of Industry Earnings Estimate Awards, StarMine ranks qualifying analysts based on their Industry Estimate Score for the stocks in a specific industry. Qualification Criteria To qualify for this ranking, an analyst must have had coverage on at least five stocks throughout 2006. If an industry has fewer than 15 stocks, an analyst must have covered a minimum of three stocks or 1/3 of the stocks in the industry, whichever is greater. Overall Earnings Estimate Awards The ten qualifying analysts with the highest Overall Estimate Scores earn StarMine's Overall Earnings Estimate Awards. Qualification Criteria To qualify for StarMine's Top 10 list, an analyst must have had coverage on at least five stocks throughout 2006. Non-Participating Firms The following firm did not participate in StarMine's 2007 Annual Analyst Awards for the German region: Lehman Brothers and Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. |
Trophies: Place an order
Handelsblatt and StarMine Present Germany's Top Analysts of 2007
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm | Industries |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Obst, Christian | HVB | Diversified Industrials; Consumer Goods & Services; Software & Services |
| 2 | Juchemich, Patrick | Oppenheim Research | Automobiles; Consumer Goods & Services |
| 3 | Tappeiner, Michael | WestLB | Diversified Industrials; IT Equipment |
| 4 | Müller, Heinz | DZ Bank | Consumer Goods & Services; Chemicals; Diversified Industrials; IT Equipment |
| 5 | Eckert, Christoph | Dresdner Kleinwort | Consumer Goods & Services; Health Care; Chemicals; Software & Services |
| 6 | Si, Meng* | Bankhaus Metzler | Consumer Goods & Services |
| 7 | Turnwald, Markus | Bankhaus Metzler | Diversified Industrials; IT Equipment |
| 8 | Spano, Pascal** | Deutsche Bank Securities | Diversified Industrials; Chemicals; Consumer Goods & Services; IT Equipment |
| 9 | Roche, Alexandra | Berenberg Bank | Health Care; Diversified Industrials; Others |
| 10 | Fickus, Wolfgang | WestLB | Software & Services; Consumer Goods & Services; Diversified Industrials; Others |
** This analyst is now at Credit Suisse.
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm | Industries |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bahlmann, Michael | M.M. Warburg Bank | Software & Services; Media; Other |
| 2 | Cohrs, Gunnar | Berenberg Bank | Health Care; Diversified Industrials; Other |
| 3 | Scheunemann, Karl-Heinz | Bankhaus Metzler | Health Care; Chemicals; Other |
| 4 | Thormann, Johannes | WestLB | Financial Services |
| 5 | Becker, Dirk | Kepler Equities | Financial Services |
| 6 | Sander, Marcus | Oppenheim Research | Software & Services; Others |
| 7 | Tappeiner, Michael | WestLB | Diversified Industrials; IT Equipment |
| 8 | Rothenbacher, Jochen | equinet (ESN Partnership) | Diversified Industrials; Consumer Goods & Services; Others |
| 9 | Huttner, Michael | J.P. Morgan | Insurance; Financial Services |
| 10 | Rödiger, Martin | CA Cheuvreux | Chemicals; Consumer Goods & Services; Health Care |
Top Most Award-Winning Brokers
| Rank | Analyst | Number of Awards |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oppenheim Research | 11 |
| 2 | WestLB | 8 |
| 3 | Bankhaus Metzler | 7 |
| 4 | DZ Bank | 6 |
| 4 | HVB | 6 |
| 6 | CA Cheuvreux | 5 |
| 6 | LBBW | 5 |
| 6 | M.M. Warburg Bank | 5 |
| 9 | Berenberg Bank | 4 |
| 9 | equinet (ESN Partnership) | 4 |
Automobiles
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tonn, Marc-Rene | M.M. Warburg Bank |
| 2 | Pieper, Jürgen | Bankhaus Metzler |
| 3 | Warburton, Max and Acquilla, Avaneesh | UBS |
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juchemich, Patrick | Oppenheim Research |
| 2 | Lawson, John | Citigroup |
| 3 | Schuldt, Tim* | DZ Bank |
Chemicals
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rödiger, Martin | CA Cheuvreux |
| 2 | Dopke, Sven | M.M. Warburg Bank |
| 3 | Stegemann, Silke | LBBW |
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rödiger, Martin | CA Cheuvreux |
| 2 | Stegemann, Silke | LBBW |
Consumer Goods & Services
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Frey, Jörg | Oppenheim Research |
| 2 | Müll, Bernd | DZ Bank |
| 3 | Geiger, Michael | Credit Suisse |
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Si, Meng* | Bankhaus Metzler |
| 2 | Bruns, Christian | Oppenheim Research |
| 3 | Frey, Jörg | Oppenheim Research |
Diversified Industrials
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kuls, Eggert | M.M. Warburg Bank |
| 2 | Tappeiner, Michael | WestLB |
| 3 | Machemehl, Nils* | M.M. Warburg Bank |
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tappeiner, Michael | WestLB |
| 2 | Heberger, Robert | Merck Finck |
| 3 | Schlamp, Dirk | DZ Bank |
Financial Services
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thormann, Johannes | WestLB |
| 2 | Becker, Dirk | Kepler Equities |
| 3 | Rothäusler, Thomas | Oppenheim Research |
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Müller, Joachim | CA Cheuvreux |
| 2 | Kayser, Olaf | LBBW |
| 3 | Weese, Andreas | HVB |
Health Care
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scheunemann, Karl-Heinz | Bankhaus Metzler |
| 2 | Possienke, Martin | equinet (ESN Partnership) |
| 3 | Braun, Volker | equinet (ESN Partnership) |
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metzger, Markus | Bank Vontobel |
| 2 | Blum, Holger | Deutsche Bank Securities |
| 3 | Brenning, Thomas* | HELABA Trust |
Insurance
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huttner, Michael | J.P. Morgan |
| 2 | Di Geronimo, Lucio | HVB |
| 3 | Quin, James | Citigroup |
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hawkins, William | Keefe Bruyette & Woods |
| 2 | Kalb, Stephan | Oppenheim Research |
| 3 | Di Geronimo, Lucio | HVB |
IT Equipment
Top Earnings Estimators
No analysts qualified for this industry's awards.Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wittwer, Stephan | LBBW |
| 2 | Becker, Thomas | HSBC |
| 3 | Laux, Bernd | CA Cheuvreux |
Software & IT Services
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Berresch, Sascha | Berenberg Bank |
| 2 | Woller, Knut | HVB |
| 3 | Reigber, Thorsten | DZ Bank |
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Berresch, Sascha | Berenberg Bank |
| 2 | Rohleder, Gerrit | equinet (ESN Partnership) |
| 3 | Gorelova, Alla | Oppenheim Research |
Telecommunication Services
Top Earnings Estimators
No analysts qualified for this industry's awards.Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Friedrich, Thomas | HVB |
| 2 | Sels, Joeri | DZ Bank |
| 3 | Reichert, Jochen | SES Research |
Utilities
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jung, Martina | Bankhaus Metzler |
| 2 | Deschamps, Grégory | ODDO Securities |
| 3 | Dickens, Adam | SG Securities |
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hummel, Patrick | LBBW |
| 2 | Majoros, Grégoire | BHF-Bank |
| 3 | Heck, Matthias and Wulf, Stephen | Oppenheim Research |
Best Performances on Real Estate
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Klose, Kai Malte | Oppenheim Research |
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kanders, Georg | WestLB |