Canada - 2009
The Globe and Mail and StarMine Present Canada's Top Analysts of 2009
The Globe and Mail and StarMine, a Thomson Reuters company, are pleased to announce the results of StarMine's 2009 annual survey of analyst performance for Canada. StarMine, the leading provider of objective ratings of securities analysts, measures analysts' performance based on the return of their stock recommendations and the accuracy of their earnings estimates. The 2009 StarMine Analyst Awards program utilizes the I/B/E/S system as its data source. The 2009 awards for Canada are based on the period January 1, 2008 thru December 31, 2008.
Spotlight on the 2009 Winners
Canada's top stock picker for 2009 is Adam Twa, who covers Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels for Peters & Co. Twa, who outperformed his benchmark by 20.9%, made his most profitable call on Duvernay Oil. He held a "sector outperform" on the stock from the start of the year through August 22 as it shot up 185%. During 2008 Twa also had an outstanding "sector underperform" recommendation on Compton Petroleum, which lost 89% of its value and under-performed its industry peers by 59% over the 12-month period.
Methodology: View our awards methodology
| StarMine Analyst Awards
Methodology |
|
| StarMine objectively measures
the performance of analysts based on the returns of their buy/sell
recommendations and the accuracy of their earnings estimates. The
2009 awards are based on the 2008 calendar-year performance of
recommendations and estimates on companies that are based in
Canada. Data Source StarMine's Canadian awards are based on the estimates and recommendations as recorded in the Thomson Financial I/B/E/S database. StarMine uses the GICS (Global Industry Classification System) for its industry definitions. In some instances in Canada, the GICS has resulted in industries that are not large enough for ranking purposes. When this has been the case, StarMine has combined multiple industries to reflect the way Canadian analysts organize their coverage. For example, StarMine's "Health Care" industry is a composite of the following GICS industries: Biotechnology, Health Care Equipment & Supplies, Health Care Providers & Services, Health Care Technology, Life Sciences Tools & Services, and Pharmaceuticals. Industry Stock Picking Awards Analysts are ranked according to their Industry Excess Return, computed from a portfolio simulation that measures each analyst relative to an industry-based benchmark. The top three qualifying analysts in each industry receive an award. Calculation of Industry Excess Return: All analyst returns are calculated relative to the return on a market capitalization-weighted portfolio of all of the stocks in a given industry. For comparison purposes, StarMine builds a non-leveraged portfolio for each analyst based on his recommendations. For each "Buy" recommendation, the portfolio is one unit long the stock and simultaneously one unit short the benchmark. The result gives the analyst credit for the amount by which the stock outperformed the benchmark. "Strong Buys" get a larger investment of two units long the stock and two units short the benchmark. "Holds" invest one unit in the benchmark (i.e., for an excess return of zero). "Sells" are the reverse: long the benchmark and short the stock. "Strong Sells" get a larger investment of two units long the benchmark and short the stock. The portfolio return is opportunity adjusted to facilitate a fair comparison of analyst performance regardless of their coverage universe. The resulting portfolio is rebalanced each month and whenever the analyst adds coverage, drops coverage, or changes a rating. Qualification Criteria: To qualify for a 2009 Industry Stock Picking Award, an analyst must have met the following criteria:
Overall Stock Picking Awards go to the top ten qualifying analysts, based on overall excess return. To calculate overall excess return, StarMine uses the weighted average of each analyst's Industry Excess Returns, where weighting is based on the number of stocks the analyst covers in each industry. Qualification Criteria: To qualify for the overall stock-picking awards, analysts must have covered at least five stocks. In addition, StarMine requires analysts to have earned at least a 5-star rating on their overall coverage (i.e., for all industries covered), as measured by StarMine's Coverage-Relative Rating. Overview of Earnings Estimate Awards StarMine's proprietary metric, Single-stock Estimate Score (SES), measures the accuracy of each analyst's earnings forecasts. SES is a measure of relative accuracy; that is, analysts are compared against their peers. An analyst's SES can range from 0 to 100, with 50 representing the average analyst. To get a score higher than 50, an analyst must make estimates that are both significantly different from and more accurate than other analysts' estimates. SES takes into account many factors: the analyst's absolute forecast error, the analyst's error compared to other analysts, the variance of the analysts' errors, the timing of the estimates, and the absolute value of the actual earnings for the stock. SES is computed daily and aggregated to provide scores on individual stocks, industries (the Industry Estimate Score), and the analyst overall (the Overall Estimate Score). Industry Earnings Estimate Awards To determine the winners of Industry Earnings Estimate Awards, StarMine ranks qualifying analysts based on their Industry Estimate Score for the stocks in a specific industry. Qualification Criteria: To qualify for this ranking, an analyst must have had coverage on at least five stocks throughout 2008. If an industry has fewer than 15 stocks, an analyst must have covered a minimum of three stocks or 1/3 of the stocks in the industry, whichever is greater. Overall Earnings Estimate Awards The ten qualifying analysts with the highest Overall Estimate Scores earn StarMine's Overall Earnings Estimate Awards. Qualification Criteria: To qualify for StarMine's Top 10 list, an analyst must have had coverage on at least five stocks throughout 2008. |
Trophies: Place an order
The Globe and Mail and StarMine Present Canada's Top Analysts of 2009
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm | Industries |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Twa, Adam | Peters & Co. | Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels |
| 2 | Doerksen, Cameron | Versant Partners | Diversified Industrials |
| 3 | Tyerman, David* | Scotia Capital | Diversified Industrials; Auto Components |
| 4 | Kenny, Patrick | National Bank Financial | Chemicals & Utilities; Oil & Gas - Royalty Trusts |
| 5 | Patel, Menal | National Bank Financial | Oil & Gas - Royalty Trusts |
| 6 | Martin, David | Dundee Securities | Health Care |
| 7 | Malhotra, Sumit** | BAS-ML | Commercial Banks; Financial Services |
| 8 | Li, Steven | Raymond James | IT Equipment; Software & IT Services |
| 9 | Shine, Adam | National Bank Financial | Media; Diversified Industrials |
| 10 | Doig, Peter | Scotia Capital | Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels; Energy Equipment & Services |
** This analyst is now at Macquarie Capital Markets.
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm | Industries |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lampard, Gary | Canaccord Adams | Metals & Mining; Diversified Industrials |
| 2 | Barnes, Greg | TD Securities | Metals & Mining; Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels |
| 3 | MacArthur, Brian | UBS | Metals & Mining; Chemicals & Utilities; Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels |
| 4 | Tse, Richard | National Bank Financial | Software & IT Services; Health Care; IT Equipment |
| 5 | Mazar, Michael | BMO Capital Markets | Energy Equipment & Services |
| 6 | Fairbanks, Andrew | BAS-ML | Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels |
| 7 | Kwan, Robert | RBC Capital Markets | Chemicals & Utilities; Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels |
| 8 | Courtright, Tony | Scotia Capital | Chemicals & Utilities; Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels; Consumer Services |
| 9 | Granger, Jason | BMO Capital Markets | Diversified Industrials |
| 10 | Bastien, Frederic | Raymond James | Diversified Industrials; Energy Equipment & Services |
Top Most Award-Winning Brokers
| Rank | Analyst | Number of Awards |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | BMO Capital Markets | 17 |
| 2 | RBC Capital Markets | 14 |
| 2 | Scotia Capital | 14 |
| 4 | TD Securities | 13 |
| 5 | National Bank Financial | 11 |
| 6 | CIBC World Markets | 8 |
| 7 | Dundee Securities | 7 |
| 8 | BAS-ML | 6 |
| 8 | Cormark Securities | 6 |
| 10 | Raymond James | 5 |
Auto Components
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sklar, Peter | BMO Capital Markets |
| 2 | Tyerman, David* | Scotia Capital |
| 3 | Willemse, Michael | CIBC World Markets |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyerman, David* | Scotia Capital |
| 2 | Morton, Nicholas | RBC Capital Markets |
Business Trusts
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malik, Navdeep* | Scotia Capital |
| 2 | Johnson, Trevor** | Blackmont Capital |
| 3 | Holden, Paul | CIBC World Markets |
** This analyst is now at National Bank Financial.
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holden, Paul | CIBC World Markets |
Chemicals & Utilities
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kenny, Patrick | National Bank Financial |
| 2 | Kanes, Sam | Scotia Capital |
| 3 | Courtright, Tony | Scotia Capital |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Courtright, Tony | Scotia Capital |
| 2 | Kwan, Robert | RBC Capital Markets |
| 3 | McGowan, Michael | BMO Capital Markets |
Commercial Banks
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malhotra, Sumit* | BAS-ML |
| 2 | Rozenberg, Peter | UBS |
| 3 | Bilodeau, Jason | TD Securities |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aiken, John | Dundee Securities |
| 2 | Mendonca, Mario | Genuity Capital Markets |
| 3 | Malhotra, Sumit* | BAS-ML |
Diversified Industrials
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Doerksen, Cameron | Versant Partners |
| 2 | Radbourne, Cherilyn | Scotia Capital |
| 3 | Powell, Bert | BMO Capital Markets |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bastien, Frederic | Raymond James |
| 2 | Granger, Jason | BMO Capital Markets |
| 3 | O'Brien, Sara | RBC Capital Markets |
Energy Equipment & Services
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lo, Kevin | FirstEnergy Capital |
| 2 | Benner, Dana | Thomas Weisel Partners |
| 3 | Garman, Todd | Peters & Co. |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mazar, Michael | BMO Capital Markets |
| 2 | Ma, Roy | Blackmont Capital |
| 3 | Bereznicki, John | Paradigm Capital |
Financial Services
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aiken, John | Dundee Securities |
| 2 | Shah, Atul | BMO Capital Markets |
| 3 | Kwan, Geoffrey | RBC Capital Markets |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Young, Doug | TD Securities |
| 2 | Kwan, Geoffrey | RBC Capital Markets |
| 3 | Fenwick, Jeff | Cormark Securities |
Health Care
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Martin, David | Dundee Securities |
| 2 | Dean, David | Cormark Securities |
| 3 | Gibbs, Lennox | TD Securities |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flint, Philippa* | RBC Capital Markets |
| 2 | Paris, Maxime* | CIBC World Markets |
| 3 | Maruoka, Neil | Canaccord Adams |
Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Top Stock Pickers
No analysts qualified for this industry's awards.Top Earnings Estimators
No analysts qualified for this industry's awards.Insurance
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hardy, André-Philippe | RBC Capital Markets |
| 2 | Reucassel, John | BMO Capital Markets |
| 3 | Young, Doug | TD Securities |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reucassel, John | BMO Capital Markets |
| 2 | Hardy, André-Philippe | RBC Capital Markets |
| 3 | Mendonca, Mario | Genuity Capital Markets |
IT Equipment
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Piccioni, Brian | BMO Capital Markets |
| 2 | Arthur, Steve | RBC Capital Markets |
| 3 | Mahal, Arinder | Dundee Securities |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Piccioni, Brian | BMO Capital Markets |
| 2 | Bhargava, Paras* | BMO Capital Markets |
| 3 | Umiastowski, Chris | TD Securities |
Media
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valentini, Vince | TD Securities |
| 2 | Shine, Adam | National Bank Financial |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shine, Adam | National Bank Financial |
| 2 | Rudniski, Randal | Credit Suisse |
| 3 | McFadgen, David | Cormark Securities |
Metals & Mining
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Burchell, Paul | Dundee Securities |
| 2 | Soni, Anita | Credit Suisse |
| 3 | Jakusconek, Tanya | National Bank Financial |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | MacArthur, Brian | UBS |
| 2 | Barnes, Greg | TD Securities |
| 3 | Green, Steven | TD Securities |
Oil & Gas - Royalty Trusts
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rodberg, Victor | Dundee Securities |
| 2 | Patel, Menal | National Bank Financial |
| 3 | Fleming, Jonathan | Cormark Securities |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zack, Kristopher | Raymond James |
| 2 | Fleming, Jonathan | Cormark Securities |
| 3 | Fairbanks, Andrew | BAS-ML |
Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Twa, Adam | Peters & Co. |
| 2 | Macqueen, Ian | Macquarie Research Equities |
| 3 | Doig, Peter | Scotia Capital |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fairbanks, Andrew | BAS-ML |
| 2 | Bouvier, Jason | RBC Capital Markets |
| 3 | Fleming, Jonathan | Cormark Securities |
Paper & Forest Products
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steuart, Sean | TD Securities |
| 2 | Carreau, Herve* | CIBC World Markets |
| 3 | Laprade, Benoît | Scotia Capital |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steuart, Sean | TD Securities |
| 2 | Atkinson, Stephen | BMO Capital Markets |
| 3 | Roberts, Don* | CIBC World Markets |
Real Estate (including REITs)
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Samols, Mandy | Raymond James |
| 2 | Smith, Michael* | National Bank Financial |
| 3 | Poladian, Shant | Canaccord Adams |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Downey, Neil | RBC Capital Markets |
| 2 | O'Reilly, Rossa | CIBC World Markets |
| 3 | Rothschild, Mark | Genuity Capital Markets |
Retail
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caicco, Perry | CIBC World Markets |
| 2 | Clark, Adam* and MacLeod, Stephen | BMO Capital Markets |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Van Aelst, Michael | TD Securities |
| 2 | Shreedhar, Vishal | UBS |
| 3 | Clark, Adam* and MacLeod, Stephen | BMO Capital Markets |
Software & IT Services
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abramsky, Michael | RBC Capital Markets |
| 2 | Rhee, Lawrence | Blackmont Capital |
| 3 | Leung, Gabriel | Paradigm Capital |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tse, Richard | National Bank Financial |
| 2 | Abramsky, Mike | RBC Capital Markets |
| 3 | Steep, Paul | Scotia Capital |
Telecommunication Services
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valentini, Vince | TD Securities |
| 2 | MacKay, Joseph | Desjardins Securities |
| 3 | Goff, Rob | Haywood Securities |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Henderson, John | Scotia Capital |
| 2 | Rhamey, Peter | BMO Capital Markets |
| 3 | MacDonald, Peter | GMP Securities |
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