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Europe - 2009

The Financial Times and StarMine Present the Top Analysts of 2009 for Developed Europe

The Financial Times and StarMine, a Thomson Reuters company, are pleased to announce the results of StarMine's 2009 annual survey of analyst performance for Europe. StarMine, the leading provider of objective ratings of securities analysts, measures analysts' performance based on the return of their stock recommendations and the accuracy of their earnings estimates. The 2009 StarMine Analyst Awards program utilizes the I/B/E/S system as its data source. The 2009 awards for Europe are based on the period January 1, 2008 thru December 31, 2008.

 

Analyst Spotlight: Vincent Rech

SG Securities analyst Vincent Rech is Developed Europe's top stock picker for 2009. Rech, who covers technology hardware and communication equipment firms, outpaced his peers by exceeding his benchmark return by 40.6% last year. He made his most insightful calls on ADVA Optical Network, a company that specializes in broadband networking solutions. In 2008 Rech had a "sell" on ADVA for more than ten months as it lost 79% of its value. Conversely, he was bullish on the stock from mid-March through mid-April as it shot up 63%.


Methodology: View our awards methodology

 
StarMine Analyst Awards Methodology
StarMine, a Thomson Reuters company, objectively measures the performance of analysts based on the returns of their buy/sell recommendations and the accuracy of their earnings estimates. The FT | StarMine Analyst Awards are based on the 2008 calendar-year performance of recommendations and estimates on companies that are based in Developed Europe.

Data Source
The awards for Developed Europe are based on the estimates and recommendations as recorded in the Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S database. StarMine uses the GICS (Global Industry Classification System) for its industry definitions. In some instances in Europe, the GICS has resulted in industries that are not large enough for ranking purposes. When this has been the case, StarMine has combined multiple industries to reflect the way analysts in Developed Europe organize their coverage. For example, StarMine's "Financial Services" industry is a composite of the following GICS industries: Capital Markets, Consumer Finance and Diversified Financial Services.

Industry Stock Picking Awards
Analysts are ranked according to their Industry Excess Return, computed from a portfolio simulation that measures each analyst relative to an industry-based benchmark. The top three qualifying analysts in each industry receive an award.

Calculation of Industry Excess Return: All analyst returns are calculated relative to the return on a market capitalization-weighted portfolio of all of the stocks in a given industry.

For comparison purposes, StarMine builds a non-leveraged portfolio for each analyst based on his recommendations. For each "Buy" recommendation, the portfolio is one unit long the stock and simultaneously one unit short the benchmark. The result gives the analyst credit for the amount by which the stock outperformed the benchmark. "Strong Buys" get a larger investment of two units long the stock and two units short the benchmark. "Holds" invest one unit in the benchmark (i.e., for an excess return of zero). "Sells" are the reverse: long the benchmark and short the stock. "Strong Sells" get a larger investment of two units long the benchmark and short the stock. The portfolio return is opportunity adjusted to facilitate a fair comparison of analyst performance regardless of their coverage universe.

The resulting portfolio is rebalanced each month and whenever the analyst adds coverage, drops coverage, or changes a rating.

Qualification Criteria: To qualify for an Industry Stock Picking Award, an analyst must have met the following criteria:
  1. An analyst must have covered at least five stocks in a given industry throughout 2008. If an industry has fewer than 15 stocks, an analyst must have covered a minimum of three stocks or 1/3 of the stocks in the industry, whichever is greater.
  2. An analyst's industry return must have exceeded the return of the relevant industry benchmark. That is, his Industry Excess Return must be positive.
  3. An analyst must have delivered at least a 3-star performance on their overall coverage (i.e., for all industries covered), as measured by StarMine's Coverage-Relative Rating.
Overall Stock Picking Awards
Overall Stock Picking Awards go to the top ten qualifying analysts, based on overall excess return. To calculate overall excess return, StarMine uses the weighted average of each analyst's Industry Excess Returns, where weighting is based on the number of stocks the analyst covers in each industry.

Qualification Criteria: To qualify for the overall stock-picking awards, analysts must have covered at least five stocks in Developed Europe. In addition, StarMine requires analysts to have earned at least a 5-star rating on their overall coverage (i.e., for all industries covered), as measured by StarMine's Coverage-Relative Rating.

Overview of Earnings Estimate Awards
StarMine's proprietary metric, Single-stock Estimate Score (SES), measures the accuracy of each analyst's earnings forecasts. SES is a measure of relative accuracy; that is, analysts are compared against their peers. An analyst's SES can range from 0 to 100, with 50 representing the average analyst. To get a score higher than 50, an analyst must make estimates that are both significantly different from and more accurate than other analysts' estimates.

SES takes into account many factors: the analyst's absolute forecast error, the analyst's error compared to other analysts, the variance of the analysts' errors, the timing of the estimates, and the absolute value of the actual earnings for the stock. SES is computed daily and aggregated to provide scores on individual stocks, industries (the Industry Estimate Score), and the analyst overall (the Overall Estimate Score).

Industry Earnings Estimate Awards
To determine the winners of Industry Earnings Estimate Awards, StarMine ranks qualifying analysts based on their Industry Estimate Score for the stocks in a specific industry.

Qualification Criteria: An analyst must have covered at least five stocks in a given industry throughout 2008. If an industry has fewer than 15 stocks, an analyst must have covered a minimum of three stocks or 1/3 of the stocks in the industry, whichever is greater.

Overall Earnings Estimate Awards
The ten qualifying analysts with the highest Overall Estimate Scores earn StarMine's Overall Earnings Estimate Awards.

Qualification Criteria: To qualify for StarMine's Top Ten list, an analyst must have had coverage on at least five stocks in the region throughout 2008.

Top Ten Brokers
Awards go to the ten brokerage firms that have accumulated the greatest number of individual analyst awards. If an analyst has changed firms during an awards year, performance is attributed to the firm where the analyst worked for the majority of the year.

Most Productive Brokers
Most Productive Broker awards go to the three firms that have earned the highest number of individual analyst awards relative to the total number of qualifying analysts in their firm. To be considered for this award, a firm must have a minimum of ten analysts who qualified for a 2009 FT | StarMine Analyst Award.

Non-Participating Firms
The following firms did not participate in the 2009 FT | StarMine Analyst Awards for Developed Europe: Handelsbanken Capital Markets and Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.
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The Financial Times and StarMine Present the Top Analysts of 2009 for Developed Europe

Top Stock Pickers

RankAnalystFirmIndustries
1Rech, VincentSG SecuritiesTechnology Hardware; Communications Equipment
2da Silva, Carla AntunesJ.P. MorganBanks
3Rocci, AlessioKepler Capital MarketsConstruction & Materials; Others
4Grübling, ThorstenSRH AlsterResearchIndustrials; Health Care; Personal & Luxury Products
5Anderson, DeniseKepler Capital MarketsBiotechnology; Pharmaceuticals
6D'Haese, HansESN Partnership (Bank Degroof)Financial Services; Food & Household Products
7Thoresen, FredrikDnB NOR MarketsSoftware & Internet Services; Technology Hardware
8El-Haik, FabienExane BNP ParibasBusiness & Consumer Services; Technology Hardware
9Pierce, JonathanCredit SuisseBanks
10Rauhala, HannuPohjola Bank MarketsIndustrials; Technology Hardware; IT services

Top Earnings Estimators

RankAnalystFirmIndustries
1Villani, GianantonioGruppo Banca LeonardoInsurance; Financial Services
2Kirkøen, BengtFondsfinansBanks
3Mateus, JoãoMillenium Investment BankingPaper & Packaging
4Numis Aerospace & Defense TeamNumis SecuritiesAerospace & Defense; Business & Consumer Services
5Blé, SéverineFortis BankFood & Household Products; Non-Food Retail
6Pechmeze, Pierre-AlexandreOddo SecuritiesBanks
7Critchlow, AnneSG SecuritiesNon-Food Retail
8Stent, JeffCitigroupFood & Household Products
9Tramontana, LuigiESN Partnership (Banca Akros)Banks
10Tarr, HenryGoldman SachsEnergy

Top Most Award-Winning Brokers

RankAnalystNumber of Awards
1CA Cheuvreux15
2BAS-ML11
2Citigroup11
4Goldman Sachs9
5UBS8
6Credit Suisse7
6ESN Partnership7
6J.P. Morgan7
6Oddo Securities7
10Deutsche Bank Securities6
10Kepler Capital Markets6
10SG Securities6

Most Productive Brokers

RankBroker
1Oddo Securities
2Bank Vontobel
3Evolution Securities

Consumer Discretionary

Automobiles

Top 3 Stock Pickers
RankAnalystFirm
1Cortes, Manuel MariaBBVA Global Markets Research
2Vecchio, MassimoMediobanca
3Besson, ThomasBAS-ML

Top 3 Earnings Estimators
RankAnalystFirm
1Möhringer, HeikoLandesbank Baden-Württemberg
2Pieper, JürgenBankhaus Metzler
3Punzet, MichaelDZ Bank

Hotels & Leisure

Top 3 Stock Pickers
RankAnalystFirm
1Rolland, CatherineKepler Capital Markets
2Rascoussier, GuillaumeOddo Securities
3Zarka, LeslieCitigroup

Top 3 Earnings Estimators
RankAnalystFirm
1Thomas, NickLandsbanki UK
2Desmarais, MatthiasExane BNP Paribas
3Lewis, VaughanMorgan Stanley

Media

Top 3 Stock Pickers
RankAnalystFirm
1Hounhouayenou, LazareFortis Bank
2Sullivan, PaulBAS-ML
3Montalti, GiovanniCA Cheuvreux

Top 3 Earnings Estimators
RankAnalystFirm
1Davison, LaurieGoldman Sachs
2Moral, OlivierHSBC
3Davies, SimonRoyal Bank of Scotland

Non-Food Retail

Top 3 Stock Pickers
RankAnalystFirm
1Kränzle, KlausGSC Research
2Walker, ChristopherNomura
3Baillie, JohnSG Securities

Top 3 Earnings Estimators
RankAnalystFirm
1Critchlow, AnneSG Securities
2Patel, Mal*BAS-ML
3Hubbard, Bruce*Citigroup
* This analyst is no longer active in our database.

Personal & Luxury Products

Top 3 Stock Pickers
RankAnalystFirm
1Schlipf, AlexanderBankhaus Metzler
2Pecciarini, PaolaGruppo Banca Leonardo
3CA Cheuvreux Personal & Luxury Products TeamCA Cheuvreux

Top 3 Earnings Estimators
RankAnalystFirm
1Rolland, CatherineKepler Capital Markets
2Pecciarini, PaolaGruppo Banca Leonardo
3Sottanella, ElenaAbaxBank

Consumer Staples

Beverages & Tobacco

Top 3 Stock Pickers
RankAnalystFirm
1Faes, Nikolaas and Trocherie, IsalinaExane BNP Paribas
2Lambrechts, NicoBAS-ML
3Fell, JonathanDeutsche Bank Securities

Top 3 Earnings Estimators
RankAnalystFirm
1Lambrechts, NicoBAS-ML
2Fell, JonathanDeutsche Bank Securities
3Gibbs, MikeJ.P. Morgan

Food & Household Products

Top 3 Stock Pickers
RankAnalystFirm
1Ruiz, FranciscoFortis Bank
2Lenz, ClaudiaBank Vontobel
3Molina Vela, Pablo Jesus*BBVA Global Markets Research
* This analyst is no longer active in our database.

Top 3 Earnings Estimators
RankAnalystFirm
1Stent, JeffCitigroup
2Palacios, JorgeGrupo Santander
3Erskine, AlanUBS

Food & Staples Retail

Top 3 Stock Pickers
RankAnalystFirm
1Anstead, JamesCitigroup
2Kasoulis, AndrewCredit Suisse
3Roquas, PatrickRabo Securities

Top 3 Earnings Estimators
RankAnalystFirm
1de Boer, FernandPetercam
2Joly, ArnaudCA Cheuvreux
3Anstead, James*Citigroup
* This analyst is no longer active in our database.

Household & Leisure Goods

Top 3 Stock Pickers
RankAnalystFirm
1CA Cheuvreux Household & Leisure Goods TeamCA Cheuvreux
2Alzuyeta, ThomasFortis Bank
3Chaput, ChristopheOddo Securities

Top 3 Earnings Estimators
RankAnalystFirm
1Jones, WilliamRoyal Bank of Scotland
2Emsellem, SarahNatixis Securities
3Stewart, Alastair*Dresdner Kleinwort
* This analyst is no longer active in our database.

Energy

Energy

Top 3 Stock Pickers
RankAnalystFirm
1Griffith, RichardEvolution Securities
2Pareto E&P TeamPareto
3Lucas, FredCazenove

Top 3 Earnings Estimators
RankAnalystFirm
1Tarr, HenryGoldman Sachs
2Tonks, KatherineCredit Suisse
3Spedding, PaulHSBC

Financials

Banks

Top 3 Stock Pickers
RankAnalystFirm
1da Silva, Carla AntunesJ.P. Morgan
2Pierce, JonathanCredit Suisse
3Webb, AbigailCredit Suisse

Top 3 Earnings Estimators
RankAnalystFirm
1Kirkøen, BengtFondsfinans
2Pechmeze, Pierre-AlexandreOddo Securities
3Malmer, Christoffer*Goldman Sachs
* This analyst is no longer active in our database.

Financial Services

Top 3 Stock Pickers
RankAnalystFirm
1D'Haese, HansESN Partnership (Bank Degroof)
2Glorie, WillemDexia Financial Markets
3Baptista, PedroUBS

Top 3 Earnings Estimators
RankAnalystFirm
1Ghose, RupakCredit Suisse
2Darwish, Elie-LaurentExane BNP Paribas
3Venditti, AndreasZürcher Kantonalbank

Insurance

Top 3 Stock Pickers
RankAnalystFirm
1Parsons, JoannaRoyal Bank of Scotland
2Marti, GeorgZürcher Kantonalbank
3Numis Insurance TeamNumis Securities

Top 3 Earnings Estimators
RankAnalystFirm
1Villani, GianantonioGruppo Banca Leonardo
2Pantarrotas, AtanasioCA Cheuvreux
3Stewart, BlairBAS-ML

Real Estate

Top 3 Stock Pickers
RankAnalystFirm
1Van Der Loos, Herman*ING Financial Markets
2Laager, PatrickBank Vontobel
3Van den Hauwe, MickaelDexia Bank Belgium
* This analyst is no longer active in our database.

Top 3 Earnings Estimators
RankAnalystFirm
1Gysens, BartMorgan Stanley
2Perry, JohnDeutsche Bank Securities
3Fraser-Andrews, JohnHSBC

Health Care

Biotechnology

Top 3 Stock Pickers
RankAnalystFirm
1White, Brian*Deutsche Bank Securities
2Oppenheim Biotechnology TeamOppenheim Research
3Verschueren, Huub**ESN Partnership (SNS Securities)
* This analyst is now at Shore Capital.
** This analyst is no longer active in our database.

Top 3 Earnings Estimators
RankAnalystFirm
1Fazeli, SamPiper Jaffray
2Wijman, MarcelESN Partnership (SNS Securities)
3Whittaker, Erica*BAS-ML
* This analyst is no longer active in our database.

Health Care

Top 3 Stock Pickers
RankAnalystFirm
1Iltgen, LeslieBankhaus Lampe
2Possienke, MartinESN Partnership (equinet)
3Oppenheim Health Care TeamOppenheim Research

Top 3 Earnings Estimators
RankAnalystFirm
1Boström, HansGoldman Sachs
2Oppenheim Health Care TeamOppenheim Research
3André-Pinard, MurielleHSBC

Pharmaceuticals

Top 3 Stock Pickers
RankAnalystFirm
1ABG Sundal Collier Pharmaceuticals TeamABG Sundal Collier
2Saurymper, DaniGoldman Sachs
3Hauber, AlexandraJ.P. Morgan

Top 3 Earnings Estimators
RankAnalystFirm
1Bradshaw, KarlMorgan Stanley
2Exane BNP Paribas Pharmaceuticals TeamExane BNP Paribas
3Weiss, AndrewBank Vontobel

Industrials

Aerospace & Defense

Top 3 Stock Pickers
RankAnalystFirm
1Webster, GrahamArden Partners
2Liberge-Dondoux, HaraldESN Partnership (CM-CIC Securities)
3CA Cheuvreux Aerospace & Defense TeamCA Cheuvreux

Top 3 Earnings Estimators
RankAnalystFirm
1Middleton, JohnCazenove
2Numis Aerospace & Defense TeamNumis Securities
3East, SteveCredit Suisse

Business & Consumer Services

Top 3 Stock Pickers
RankAnalystFirm
1Wright, EdAltium Securities
2Vanderpump, WilliamRoyal Bank of Scotland
3Brent, JoeCitigroup

Top 3 Earnings Estimators
RankAnalystFirm
1Ripper, AndrewBAS-ML
2Brent, JoeCitigroup
3Forsythe, Hector*Evolution Securities
* This analyst is now at Oriel Securities.

Industrials

Top 3 Stock Pickers
RankAnalystFirm
1Rauhala, HannuPohjola Bank Markets
2CA Cheuvreux Industrials TeamCA Cheuvreux
3Bishop, Alastair*Dresdner Kleinwort
* This analyst is no longer active in our database.

Top 3 Earnings Estimators
RankAnalystFirm
1Bishop, Alastair*Dresdner Kleinwort
2CA Cheuvreux Industrials TeamCA Cheuvreux
3Schaumann, MalteSES Research
* This analyst is no longer active in our database.

Machinery

Top 3 Stock Pickers
RankAnalystFirm
1Dyett, ChrisInvestec
2Eriksson, AndersSEB Enskilda
3Axén, MagnusEvli Bank

Top 3 Earnings Estimators
RankAnalystFirm
1Bridge, RoderickSG Securities
2Abedi, AsadBAS-ML
3Trocmé, JohanNordea Markets

Transportation

Top 3 Stock Pickers
RankAnalystFirm
1Knutsen, BjørnFirst Securities
2Brooker, StevenSEB Enskilda
3Neal, OliverGoldman Sachs

Top 3 Earnings Estimators
RankAnalystFirm
1Bendriss, RachidCarnegie Investment Bank
2Reid, Chris*Deutsche Bank Securities
3Brewer, DamianJ.P. Morgan
* This analyst is no longer active in our database.

Information Technology

IT Services

Top 3 Stock Pickers
RankAnalystFirm
1Evans, GarethInvestec
2Imlah, JonathanAltium Securities
3Vos, GerardusCitigroup

Top 3 Earnings Estimators
RankAnalystFirm
1Vos, GerardusCitigroup
2Berglund, KarlABG Sundal Collier
3Daure, LaurentKepler Capital Markets

Software & Internet Services

Top 3 Stock Pickers
RankAnalystFirm
1Clark, GraemePiper Jaffray
2UBS Software TeamUBS
3Swedbank Software & Services TeamSwedbank Securities

Top 3 Earnings Estimators
RankAnalystFirm
1Briest, MichaelUBS
2Hollup, HallgeirABG Sundal Collier
3Marcon, Derric*Kepler Capital Markets
* This analyst is no longer active in our database.

Technology Hardware

Top 3 Stock Pickers
RankAnalystFirm
1Langer, ThomasWestLB Capital Markets
2Matot, EmmanuelOddo Securities
3Rauhala, HannuPohjola Bank Markets

Top 3 Earnings Estimators
RankAnalystFirm
1Deshpande, SandeepJ.P. Morgan
2Boddy, TimGoldman Sachs
3Scemama, DidierRoyal Bank of Scotland

Materials

Chemicals

Top 3 Stock Pickers
RankAnalystFirm
1Dopke, SvenM.M. Warburg Bank
2Rödiger, MartinCA Cheuvreux
3Weiz, ChristianUniCredit Markets & Investment Banking

Top 3 Earnings Estimators
RankAnalystFirm
1Dopke, SvenM.M. Warburg Bank
2Rödiger, MartinCA Cheuvreux
3Boucher-Ferte, VirginieDeutsche Bank Securities

Construction & Materials

Top 3 Stock Pickers
RankAnalystFirm
1Verbiesen, DirkKempen & Co
2Bueno, AránzazuGrupo Santander
3UBS Construction TeamUBS

Top 3 Earnings Estimators
RankAnalystFirm
1Pinkney, MikeCitigroup
2CA Cheuvreux Construction & Materials TeamCA Cheuvreux
3Roeg, Michael*Rabo Securities
* This analyst is no longer active in our database.

Metals & Mining

Top 3 Stock Pickers
RankAnalystFirm
1Pez, LucOddo Securities
2Watson, KeithEvolution Securities
3Fairclough, Daniel*BAS-ML
* This analyst is no longer active in our database.

Top 3 Earnings Estimators
RankAnalystFirm
1Snowdowne, AndrewUBS
2Galloway, Paul and Sporre, Grant*UBS
3Potts, Martin**Landsbanki UK
* Grant Sporre is no longer active in our database.
** This analyst is no longer active in our database.

Paper & Packaging

Top 3 Stock Pickers
RankAnalystFirm
1Keitaanniemi, KatjaeQ Bank
2Sjöberg, JohanCarnegie Investment Bank
3Mikkola, Mika*Kaupthing Bank
* This analyst is no longer active in our database.

Top 3 Earnings Estimators
RankAnalystFirm
1Toorabally, EshanGoldman Sachs
2Jáfs, MikaelCA Cheuvreux
3Rasmuson, Claes and Södermark, OlaSwedbank Securities

Telecom Services

Telecommunication Services

Top 3 Stock Pickers
RankAnalystFirm
1Dann, JonathanJ.P. Morgan
2Labbe, Jean-ChristopheBAS-ML
3Tastet, GuillaumeOddo Securities

Top 3 Earnings Estimators
RankAnalystFirm
1Pratsch, MarcusDZ Bank
2Janssens, Laura and Papadoupoulou, ArgiroUBS
3Beyazian, StéphaneSG Securities

Utilities

Utilities

Top 3 Stock Pickers
RankAnalystFirm
1Silva, BrunoBanco Português de Investimento
2Escher, AndreasBank Vontobel
3CA Cheuvreux Utilities TeamCA Cheuvreux

Top 3 Earnings Estimators
RankAnalystFirm
1Voss, Stefan*Bayerische Landesbank
2Pezzoli, FrancescaCA Cheuvreux
3CA Cheuvreux Utilities TeamCA Cheuvreux
* This analyst is no longer active in our database.

 

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