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France - 2009

Les Echos and StarMine Present the Top Analysts of 2009 for France

Les Echos and StarMine, a Thomson Reuters company, are pleased to announce the results of StarMine's 2009 annual survey of analyst performance for France. StarMine, the leading provider of objective ratings of securities analysts, measures analysts' performance based on the return of their stock recommendations and the accuracy of their earnings estimates. The 2009 StarMine Analyst Awards program utilizes the I/B/E/S system as its data source. The 2009 awards for France are based on the period January 1, 2008 thru December 31, 2008.

 

Analyst Spotlight - France

Damien de Saint-Germain and Benoît Trochu of CA Cheuvreux have been named the top Overall Stock Pickers in the 2009 Analyst Awards for France. The research team earned its ranking with a series of prescient downside recommendations in the French Utilities sector. Trochu and de Saint-Germain held a full-year "3/Underperform" on Theolia, a producer of wind-generated electricity, which tumbled 85% from 20.17 to 3.04 and under-performed the industry benchmark by 53% during 2008. They also profited handsomely from their bearish outlook on EDF Energies Nouvelles, which lost 44% of its value and under-performed its industry peers by 12% last year. EDF Energies Nouvelles is a supplier of green electricity and alternative energies.


Methodology: View our awards methodology

 
StarMine Analyst Awards Methodology
StarMine objectively measures the performance of analysts based on the returns of their buy/sell recommendations and the accuracy of their earnings estimates. The 2009 awards for France are based on the 2008 calendar-year performance of recommendations and estimates on companies that are based in France.

Data Source
StarMine's awards for France are based on the estimates and recommendations as recorded in the Thomson Financial I/B/E/S database. StarMine uses the GICS (Global Industry Classification System) for its industry definitions. In some instances in France, the GICS has resulted in industries that are not large enough for ranking purposes. When this has been the case, StarMine has combined multiple industries to reflect the way analysts organize their coverage for France. For example, StarMine's "Health Care" industry is a composite of the following GICS industries: Health Care Equipment & Supplies, Health Care Providers & Services, Health Care Technology, and Life Sciences Tools & Services.

Industry Stock Picking Awards
Analysts are ranked according to their Industry Excess Return, computed from a portfolio simulation that measures each analyst relative to an industry-based benchmark. The top three qualifying analysts in each industry receive an award.

Calculation of Industry Excess Return: All analyst returns are calculated relative to the return on a market capitalization-weighted portfolio of all of the stocks in a given industry.

For comparison purposes, StarMine builds a non-leveraged portfolio for each analyst based on his recommendations. For each "Buy" recommendation, the portfolio is one unit long the stock and simultaneously one unit short the benchmark. The result gives the analyst credit for the amount by which the stock outperformed the benchmark. "Strong Buys" get a larger investment of two units long the stock and two units short the benchmark. "Holds" invest one unit in the benchmark (i.e., for an excess return of zero). "Sells" are the reverse: long the benchmark and short the stock. "Strong Sells" get a larger investment of two units long the benchmark and short the stock. The portfolio return is opportunity adjusted to facilitate a fair comparison of analyst performance regardless of their coverage universe.

The resulting portfolio is rebalanced each month and whenever the analyst adds coverage, drops coverage, or changes a rating.

Qualification Criteria: To qualify for a 2009 Industry Stock Picking Award, an analyst must have met the following criteria:
  1. An analyst must have covered at least five stocks in a given industry throughout 2008. If an industry has fewer than 15 stocks, an analyst must have covered a minimum of three stocks or 1/3 of the stocks in the industry, whichever is greater.
  2. An analyst's industry return must have exceeded the return of the relevant industry benchmark. That is, his Industry Excess Return must be positive.
  3. An analyst must have delivered at least a 3-star performance on their overall coverage (i.e., for all industries covered), as measured by StarMine's Coverage-Relative Rating.
Overall Stock Picking Awards
Overall Stock Picking Awards go to the top ten qualifying analysts, based on overall excess return. To calculate overall excess return, StarMine uses the weighted average of each analyst's Industry Excess Returns, where weighting is based on the number of stocks the analyst covers in each industry.

Qualification Criteria: To qualify for the overall stock-picking awards, analysts must have covered at least five stocks. In addition, StarMine requires analysts to have earned at least a 5-star rating on their overall coverage (i.e., for all industries covered), as measured by StarMine's Coverage-Relative Rating.

Overview of Earnings Estimate Awards
StarMine's proprietary metric, Single-stock Estimate Score (SES), measures the accuracy of each analyst's earnings forecasts. SES is a measure of relative accuracy; that is, analysts are compared against their peers. An analyst's SES can range from 0 to 100, with 50 representing the average analyst. To get a score higher than 50, an analyst must make estimates that are both significantly different from and more accurate than other analysts' estimates.

SES takes into account many factors: the analyst's absolute forecast error, the analyst's error compared to other analysts, the variance of the analysts' errors, the timing of the estimates, and the absolute value of the actual earnings for the stock. SES is computed daily and aggregated to provide scores on individual stocks, industries (the Industry Estimate Score), and the analyst overall (the Overall Estimate Score).

Industry Earnings Estimate Awards
To determine the winners of Industry Earnings Estimate Awards, StarMine ranks qualifying analysts based on their Industry Estimate Score for the stocks in a specific industry.

Qualification Criteria: To qualify for this ranking, an analyst must have had coverage on at least five stocks throughout 2008. If an industry has fewer than 15 stocks, an analyst must have covered a minimum of three stocks or 1/3 of the stocks in the industry, whichever is greater.

Overall Earnings Estimate Awards
The ten qualifying analysts with the highest Overall Estimate Scores earn StarMine's Overall Earnings Estimate Awards.

Qualification Criteria: To qualify for StarMine's Top 10 list, an analyst must have had coverage on at least five stocks throughout 2008.

Non-Participating Firms
The following firm did not participate in StarMine's 2009 Annual Analyst Awards for France: Exane BNP Paribas and Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.
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Les Echos and StarMine Present the Top Analysts of 2009 for France

Top Stock Pickers

RankAnalystFirmIndustries
1de Saint-Germain, Damien and Trochu, BenoîtCA CheuvreuxUtilities
2Alzuyeta, ThomasFortis BankHotels & Leisure
3Damois-Gignoux, CamilleOddo SecuritiesFood & Beverages; Retail & Consumer Products; Machinery & Materials
4Jousseaume, PatrickSG SecuritiesHotels& Leisure; Machinery & Materials; Retail & Consumer Products; Health Care: Others
5Kerner, MilèneKepler Capital MarketsMachinery & Materials; Aerospace & Defense
6Schoon, BoudewijnKempen & CoFinancial Services
7Sabatier, Loïc and de Laporte, OdonCA CheuvreuxTechnology Equipment & Telecommunications; Software & IT; Media
8Hounhouayenou, LazareFortis BankMedia
9Colli, FrançoisKepler Capital MarketsMachinery & Materials; Retail & Consumer Products; Transportation
10Gagné, CorinneCA CheuvreuxRetail & Food Products

Top Earnings Estimators

RankAnalystFirmIndustries
1Boddy, TimGoldman SachsTechnology Equipment & Telecommunications; Media
2Simon, Sarah*Morgan StanleyMedia
3Thollon Pommerol, Emmanuelle*CM-CIC (ESN Partnership)Retail & Consumer Products
4Joly, ArnaudCA CheuvreuxRetail & Consumer Products
5Stern, Geoffroy and Patry, DominiqueCA CheuvreuxEnergy & Chemicals
6Blé, SéverineFortis BankFood & Beverages; Retail & Consumer Products
7Lauvin, Françoise and Lamelin, PierreCA CheuvreuxRetail & Consumer Products; Food & Beverages
8Capdeville, FrédéricKepler Capital MarketsHealth Care; Biotechnology & Pharmaceuticals
9Rolland, CatherineKepler Capital MarketsRetail & Consumer Products; Hotels & Leisure
10Kuppen, StefanGoldman SachsSoftware & IT
* This analyst is no longer active in our database.

Top Most Award-Winning Brokers

RankAnalystNumber of Awards
1CA Cheuvreux18
1Kepler Capital Markets18
3Oddo Securities10
4Fortis Bank8
4Natixis Securities8
6CM-CIC (ESN Partnership)5
7Gilbert Dupont4
8Goldman Sachs3
8SG Securities3
10BAS-ML2
10Deutsche Bank Securities2
10HSBC2
10Kempen & Co2
10Morgan Stanley2
10Royal Bank of Scotland2

Aerospace & Defense

Top Stock Pickers

RankAnalystFirm
1Boivin-Champeaux, AntoineCA Cheuvreux
2Brochet, OlivierNatixis Securities
3Boucheny, PierreKepler Capital Markets

Top Earnings Estimators

RankAnalystFirm
1Gruter, SebastienDeutsche Bank Securities
2Brochet, OlivierNatixis Securities
3Derocles, YanOddo Securities

Automobiles

Top Stock Pickers

RankAnalystFirm
1Pearson, StuartCredit Suisse
2Besson, ThomasBAS-ML

Top Earnings Estimators

RankAnalystFirm
1Besson, ThomasBAS-ML
2Quemener, Pierre-YvesKepler Capital Markets
3Pouteau, OlivierOddo Securities

Biotechnology & Pharmaceuticals

Top Stock Pickers

No analysts qualified for this industry's awards.

Top Earnings Estimators

RankAnalystFirm
1Natixis Securities Biotechnology TeamNatixis Securities

Construction

Top Stock Pickers

RankAnalystFirm
1Pujal, JosepKepler Capital Markets

Top Earnings Estimators

RankAnalystFirm
1Ahmed, NabilDeutsche Bank Securities
2Palliez, ArnaudCA Cheuvreux

Energy & Chemicals

Top Stock Pickers

No analysts qualified for this industry's awards.

Top Earnings Estimators

RankAnalystFirm
1Stern, Geoffroy and Patry, DominiqueCA Cheuvreux
2Natixis Securities Energy TeamNatixis Securities
3Leurent, Antoine*KBC Securities
* This analyst is no longer active in our database.

Financial Services

Top Stock Pickers

RankAnalystFirm
1Schoon, BoudewijnKempen & Co
2Henry-Diesbach, SamuelKepler Capital Markets
3Quirijns, Rogier*Royal Bank of Scotland
* This analyst is no longer active in our database.

Top Earnings Estimators

RankAnalystFirm
1Flabbée, PierreKepler Capital Markets
2Quirijns, Rogier*Royal Bank of Scotland
3Natixis Securities Real Estate Team*Natixis Securities
* This analyst/team is no longer active in our database.

Food & Beverages

Top Stock Pickers

RankAnalystFirm
1Damois-Gignoux, CamilleOddo Securities
2Ropert, ChristineGilbert Dupont

Top Earnings Estimators

RankAnalystFirm
1Prêtre, FrancisCM-CIC (ESN Partnership)
2Ropert, ChristineGilbert Dupont
3Damois-Gignoux, CamilleOddo Securities

Health Care

Top Stock Pickers

RankAnalystFirm
1Dubosq, StephanArkeon Finance
2Meslay-Ricour, AxelleCA Cheuvreux
3Ganet, Christophe-RaphaëlOddo Securities

Top Earnings Estimators

RankAnalystFirm
1Capdeville, FrédéricKepler Capital Markets
2Moreau, CédricNatixis Securities
3André-Pinard, MurielleHSBC

Hotels & Leisure

Top Stock Pickers

RankAnalystFirm
1Lhermenier, VincentCA Cheuvreux
2Alzuyeta, ThomasFortis Bank
3Chaput, ChristopheOddo Securities

Top Earnings Estimators

RankAnalystFirm
1Emsellem, SarahNatixis Securities
2Fort, Marie-LineSG Securities
3Bonal, AnnieGilbert Dupont

Insurance

Top Stock Pickers

RankAnalystFirm
1Flabbée, PierreKepler Capital Markets
2Jacob, NicolasOddo Securities

Top Earnings Estimators

RankAnalystFirm
1Calès, EmmanuelleSG Securities
2Flabbée, PierreKepler Capital Markets
3Jacquet, Thomas*CA Cheuvreux
* This analyst is now at Exane BNP Paribas.

Machinery & Materials

Top Stock Pickers

RankAnalystFirm
1Auzanneau, ChristianCM-CIC (ESN Partnership)
2Colli, FrançoisKepler Capital Markets
3Huberty, MarcFortis Bank

Top Earnings Estimators

RankAnalystFirm
1Glaser, AlfredCA Cheuvreux
2Colli, FrançoisKepler Capital Markets
3Bouchet, DeniseGilbert Dupont

Media

Top Stock Pickers

RankAnalystFirm
1Hounhouayenou, LazareFortis Bank
2Gendreau, PhilippeING Financial Markets
3O'Shea, ConorKepler Capital Markets

Top Earnings Estimators

RankAnalystFirm
1Simon, Sarah*Morgan Stanley
2Moral, OlivierHSBC
3Bucaille, Pierre*CA Cheuvreux
* This analyst is no longer active in our database.

Retail & Consumer Products

Top Stock Pickers

RankAnalystFirm
1de Mortemart, Charles-HenriBerenberg Bank
2Lecasble, CédricKepler Capital Markets

Top Earnings Estimators

RankAnalystFirm
1Thollon Pommerol, Emmanuelle*CM-CIC (ESN Partnership)
2Lauvin, Françoise and Lamelin, PierreCA Cheuvreux
3Lebrun, OlivierNatixis Securities
* This analyst is no longer active in our database.

Software & IT

Top Stock Pickers

RankAnalystFirm
1Bodin, Jérôme and Levy, DovCM-CIC (ESN Partnership)
2Daure, LaurentKepler Capital Markets
3Macquet, OlivierFortis Bank

Top Earnings Estimators

RankAnalystFirm
1Kuppen, StefanGoldman Sachs
2Reid, TrionJefferies & Co.
3Daure, LaurentKepler Capital Markets

Technology Equipment & Telecommunications

Top Stock Pickers

RankAnalystFirm
1Matot, EmmanuelOddo Securities
2de Laporte, OdonCA Cheuvreux
3Laport, BertrandFortis Bank

Top Earnings Estimators

No analysts qualified for this industry's awards.

Transport

Top Stock Pickers

No analysts qualified for this industry's awards.

Top Earnings Estimators

No analysts qualified for this industry's awards.

Utilities

Top Stock Pickers

RankAnalystFirm
1de Saint-Germain, Damien and Trochu, BenoîtCA Cheuvreux

Top Earnings Estimators

RankAnalystFirm
1Lekander, PerUBS
2Lacaze, StéphaneOddo Securities
3de Saint-Germain, Damien and Trochu, BenoîtCA Cheuvreux

 

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