Germany - 2009
Handelsblatt and StarMine Present Germany's Top Analysts of 2009
Handelsblatt and StarMine, a Thomson Reuters company, are pleased to announce the results of StarMine's 2009 annual survey of analyst performance for Germany. StarMine, the leading provider of objective ratings of securities analysts, measures analysts' performance based on the return of their stock recommendations and the accuracy of their earnings estimates. The 2009 StarMine Analyst Awards program utilizes the I/B/E/S system as its data source. The 2009 awards for Germany are based on the period January 1, 2008 thru December 31, 2008.
Spotlight on Germany's Top Stock Picker
The top stock picker in Germany for 2009 is Peter Metzger, who covers Diversified Industrials for Oppenheim Research. Metzger made his most profitable recommendation on Jungheinrich, a supplier of fork lifts and other material handling products. He maintained a "sell" on the stock throughout 2008 as it lost 65% of its value. Metzger also did well with his "reduce" recommendation on industrial robots manufacturer KUKA. During the six months in which he was bearish on the company, it lost 49% of its market capitalization.
Methodology: View our awards methodology
| StarMine Analyst Awards
Methodology |
|
| StarMine objectively measures
the performance of analysts based on the returns of their buy/sell
recommendations and the accuracy of their earnings estimates. The
2009 awards are based on the 2008 calendar-year performance of
recommendations and estimates on companies that are based in
Germany. Data Source StarMine's German awards are based on the estimates and recommendations as recorded in the Thomson Financial I/B/E/S database. StarMine uses the GICS (Global Industry Classification System) for its industry definitions. In some instances in Germany, the GICS has resulted in industries that are not large enough for ranking purposes. When this has been the case, StarMine has combined multiple industries to reflect the way German analysts organize their coverage. For example, StarMine's "Health Care" industry is a composite of the following GICS industries: Biotechnology, Health Care Equipment & Supplies, Health Care Providers & Services, Health Care Technology, Life Sciences Tools & Services, and Pharmaceuticals. Industry Stock Picking Awards Analysts are ranked according to their Industry Excess Return, computed from a portfolio simulation that measures each analyst relative to an industry-based benchmark. The top three qualifying analysts in each industry receive an award. Calculation of Industry Excess Return: All analyst returns are calculated relative to the return on a market capitalization-weighted portfolio of all of the stocks in a given industry. For comparison purposes, StarMine builds a non-leveraged portfolio for each analyst based on his recommendations. For each "Buy" recommendation, the portfolio is one unit long the stock and simultaneously one unit short the benchmark. The result gives the analyst credit for the amount by which the stock outperformed the benchmark. "Strong Buys" get a larger investment of two units long the stock and two units short the benchmark. "Holds" invest one unit in the benchmark (i.e., for an excess return of zero). "Sells" are the reverse: long the benchmark and short the stock. "Strong Sells" get a larger investment of two units long the benchmark and short the stock. The portfolio return is opportunity adjusted to facilitate a fair comparison of analyst performance regardless of their coverage universe. The resulting portfolio is rebalanced each month and whenever the analyst adds coverage, drops coverage, or changes a rating. Qualification Criteria: To qualify for a 2009 Industry Stock Picking Award, an analyst must have met the following criteria:
Overall Stock Picking Awards go to the top ten qualifying analysts, based on overall excess return. To calculate overall excess return, StarMine uses the weighted average of each analyst's Industry Excess Returns, where weighting is based on the number of stocks the analyst covers in each industry. Qualification Criteria: To qualify for the overall stock-picking awards, analysts must have covered at least five stocks. In addition, StarMine requires analysts to have earned at least a 5-star rating on their overall coverage (i.e., for all industries covered), as measured by StarMine's Coverage-Relative Rating. Overview of Earnings Estimate Awards StarMine's proprietary metric, Single-stock Estimate Score (SES), measures the accuracy of each analyst's earnings forecasts. SES is a measure of relative accuracy; that is, analysts are compared against their peers. An analyst's SES can range from 0 to 100, with 50 representing the average analyst. To get a score higher than 50, an analyst must make estimates that are both significantly different from and more accurate than other analysts' estimates. SES takes into account many factors: the analyst's absolute forecast error, the analyst's error compared to other analysts, the variance of the analysts' errors, the timing of the estimates, and the absolute value of the actual earnings for the stock. SES is computed daily and aggregated to provide scores on individual stocks, industries (the Industry Estimate Score), and the analyst overall (the Overall Estimate Score). Industry Earnings Estimate Awards To determine the winners of Industry Earnings Estimate Awards, StarMine ranks qualifying analysts based on their Industry Estimate Score for the stocks in a specific industry. Qualification Criteria: To qualify for this ranking, an analyst must have had coverage on at least five stocks throughout 2008. If an industry has fewer than 15 stocks, an analyst must have covered a minimum of three stocks or 1/3 of the stocks in the industry, whichever is greater. Overall Earnings Estimate Awards The ten qualifying analysts with the highest Overall Estimate Scores earn StarMine's Overall Earnings Estimate Awards. Qualification Criteria: To qualify for StarMine's Top 10 list, an analyst must have had coverage on at least five stocks throughout 2008. Non-Participating Firms The following firm did not participate in StarMine's 2009 Annual Analyst Awards for Germany: Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. |
Trophies: Place an order
Handelsblatt and StarMine Present Germany's Top Analysts of 2009
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm | Industries |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metzger, Peter | Oppenheim Research | Diversified Industrials |
| 2 | Grübling, Thorsten | SRH AlsterResearch | Diversified Industrials |
| 3 | Bumm, Philipp | CA Cheuvreux | Diversified Industrials; Energy |
| 4 | Gmeinwieser, Christoph | Bayerische Landesbank | Media; Consumer Goods & Services |
| 5 | Dopke, Sven | M.M. Warburg Bank | Chemicals; Consumer Good & Services |
| 6 | Endner, Mario* | Bayerische Landesbank | Diversified Industrials |
| 7 | Reinberg, Oliver | CA Cheuvreux | Health Care; Media |
| 8 | Weier, Sven | UBS | Diversified Industrials |
| 9 | Merck Finck & Co Research Department | Merck Finck & Co Privatbankiers | Consumer Goods & Services; Diversified Industrials |
| 10 | Laux, Bernd | CA Cheuvreux | IT Equipment; Diversified Industrials; Software & Services |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm | Industries |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Schmitt, Jochen | Bankhaus Metzler | Financial Services; Insurance |
| 2 | Pieper, Jürgen | Bankhaus Metzler | Automobiles; Diversified Industrials |
| 3 | Iltgen, Leslie | Bankhaus Lampe | Health Care; Chemicals |
| 4 | Growe, Sebastian | equinet (ESN Partnership) | Diversified Industrials |
| 5 | Roche, Alexandra | Berenberg Bank | Health Care; Chemicals; Diversified Industrials; Financial Services |
| 6 | Mues, Ludger and Lakatos, Claudia | Oppenheim Research | Health Care |
| 7 | Cinar, Tarkan | WestLB Capital Markets | IT Equipment; Diversified Industrials |
| 8 | Kuls, Eggert | M.M. Warburg Bank | Diversified Industrials |
| 9 | Lembke, Laura | Berenberg Bank | Diversified Industrials; Consumer Goods & Services; Financial Services |
| 10 | Schellmoser, Friedrich | UniCredit Markets & Investment Banking | Diversified Industrials; Media |
Top Most Award-Winning Brokers
| Rank | Analyst | Number of Awards |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | CA Cheuvreux | 9 |
| 1 | Oppenheim Research | 9 |
| 3 | Bankhaus Metzler | 8 |
| 4 | M.M. Warburg Bank | 7 |
| 5 | Bankhaus Lampe | 4 |
| 5 | SES Research | 4 |
| 5 | UniCredit Markets & Investment Banking | 4 |
| 8 | Bayerische Landesbank | 3 |
| 8 | Berenberg Bank | 3 |
| 8 | DZ Bank | 3 |
| 8 | equinet (ESN Partnership) | 3 |
| 8 | Landesbank Baden-Württemberg | 3 |
Automobiles
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Möhringer, Heiko | Landesbank Baden-Württemberg |
| 2 | Breitsprecher, Christian and Schattner, Jens | Oppenheim Research |
| 3 | Pieper, Jürgen | Bankhaus Metzler |
Top Stock Pickers
No analysts qualified for this industry's awards.Chemicals
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dopke, Sven | M.M. Warburg Bank |
| 2 | Rödiger, Martin | CA Cheuvreux |
| 3 | Kippe, Stephan | Commerzbank Securities |
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dopke, Sven | M.M. Warburg Bank |
| 2 | Rödiger, Martin | CA Cheuvreux |
| 3 | Kippe, Stephan | Commerzbank Securities |
Consumer Goods & Services
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gmeinwieser, Matthias | Bayerische Landesbank |
| 2 | Geiger, Michael | Credit Suisse |
| 3 | Kleibauer, Thilo | M.M. Warburg Bank |
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kränzle, Klaus | GSC Research |
| 2 | Schlienkamp, Christoph | Bankhaus Lampe |
| 3 | Kleibauer, Thilo | M.M. Warburg Bank |
Diversified Industrials
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Growe, Sebastian | equinet (ESN Partnership) |
| 2 | Klepp, Stephan | Berenberg Bank |
| 3 | Rothenaicher, Peter | UniCredit Markets & Investment Banking |
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bumm, Philipp | CA Cheuvreux |
| 2 | Metzger, Peter | Oppenheim Research |
| 3 | Leipold, Philipp | GBC |
Energy
Top Earnings Estimators
No analysts qualified for this industry's awards.Top Stock Pickers
No analysts qualified for this industry's awards.Financial Services
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Schmitt, Jochen | Bankhaus Metzler |
| 2 | Werle, Carsten | Oppenheim Research |
| 3 | CA Cheuvreux Financials Team | CA Cheuvreux |
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hörberg, Robert | Kepler Capital Markets |
| 2 | CA Cheuvreux Financials Team | CA Cheuvreux |
| 3 | Schmitt, Jochen | Bankhaus Metzler |
Health Care
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mues, Ludger and Lakatos, Claudia | Oppenheim Research |
| 2 | Iltgen, Leslie | Bankhaus Lampe |
| 3 | Maul, Thomas | DZ Bank |
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reinberg, Oliver | CA Cheuvreux |
| 2 | Possienke, Martin | equinet (ESN Partnership) |
| 3 | Peter, Christian and Düllmann, Peter | Oppenheim Research |
Insurance
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalb, Stephan | Oppenheim Research |
| 2 | Schmitt, Jochen | Bankhaus Metzler |
| 3 | Mazzuoli, Robert | Landesbank Baden-Württemberg |
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huttner, Michael | J.P. Morgan |
| 2 | Schmitt, Jochen | Bankhaus Metzler |
| 3 | Hamann, Christian | Hamburger Sparkasse |
IT Equipment
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wagner, Jürgen | Oppenheim Research |
| 2 | Iltgen, Karsten | Credit Suisse |
| 3 | Schaumann, Malte | SES Research |
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Schnitzer, Harald | DZ Bank |
| 2 | Schaumann, Malte | SES Research |
| 3 | Wittwer, Stephan | Landesbank Baden-Württemberg |
Media
Top Earnings Estimators
No analysts qualified for this industry's awards.Top Stock Pickers
No analysts qualified for this industry's awards.Software & IT Services
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ellmann, Felix | SES Research |
| 2 | Woller, Knut | UniCredit Markets & Investment Banking |
| 3 | Reigber, Thorsten | DZ Bank |
Top Stock Pickers
No analysts qualified for this industry's awards.Telecommunication Services
Top Earnings Estimators
No analysts qualified for this industry's awards.Top Stock Pickers
No analysts qualified for this industry's awards.Utilities
Top Earnings Estimators
No analysts qualified for this industry's awards.Top Stock Pickers
No analysts qualified for this industry's awards.Best Performances on Real Estate
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Remke, Andre | UniCredit Markets & Investment Banking |
| 2 | Klingner, Torsten | SES Research |
| 3 | Klose, Kai | Macquarie Research Equities |
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Schmitt, Jochen | Bankhaus Metzler |
| 2 | Neumann, Frank | Bankhaus Lampe |
| 3 | Dibbern, Ralf | M.M. Warburg Bank |
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