The United Kingdom and Ireland - 2009
The Sunday Times and StarMine Present the Top Analysts of 2009 for the United Kingdom and Ireland
The Sunday Times and StarMine, a Thomson Reuters company, are pleased to announce the results of StarMine's 2009 annual survey of analyst performance for The United Kingdom and Ireland. StarMine, the leading provider of objective ratings of securities analysts, measures analysts' performance based on the return of their stock recommendations and the accuracy of their earnings estimates. The 2009 StarMine Analyst Awards program utilizes the I/B/E/S system as its data source. The 2009 awards for The United Kingdom and Ireland are based on the period January 1, 2008 thru December 31, 2008.
Analyst Spotlight - United Kingdom & Ireland
J.P. Morgan analyst Carla Antunes da Silva has been named No.1 Overall Stock Picker in the 2009 Analyst Awards for the United Kingdom and Ireland. Da Silva, who is also the top-ranked stock picker in Banks and Financial Services, made her most lucrative recommendation on the UK-based financial services provider Bradford & Bingley. She had an "underweight" call on the firm from mid-March through the end of September as its stock price declined by 90% and under-performed the industry benchmark by 73%. Da Silva also fared well with her full-year "underweight" on HBOS, which lost 90% of its value in 1008 and under-performed its industry peers by 35%.
Methodology: View our awards methodology
| StarMine Analyst Awards Methodology | |
| StarMine objectively measures
the performance of analysts based on the returns of their buy/sell
recommendations and the accuracy of their earnings estimates. The
2009 awards for the United Kingdom and Ireland are based on the
2008 calendar-year performance of recommendations and estimates on
companies that are based in the region. Data Source StarMine's awards for the United Kingdom and Ireland are based on the estimates and recommendations as recorded in the Thomson Financial I/B/E/S database. StarMine uses the GICS (Global Industry Classification System) for its industry definitions. In some instances in the United Kingdom and Ireland, the GICS has resulted in industries that are not large enough for ranking purposes. When this has been the case, StarMine has combined multiple industries to reflect the way analysts organize their coverage for the United Kingdom and Ireland. For example, StarMine's "Health Care" industry is a composite of the following GICS industries: Biotechnology, Health Care Equipment & Supplies, Health Care Providers & Services, Life Sciences Tools & Services, and Pharmaceuticals. Industry Stock Picking Awards Analysts are ranked according to their Industry Excess Return, computed from a portfolio simulation that measures each analyst relative to an industry-based benchmark. The top three qualifying analysts in each industry receive an award. Calculation of Industry Excess Return: All analyst returns are calculated relative to the return on a market capitalization-weighted portfolio of all of the stocks in a given industry. For comparison purposes, StarMine builds a non-leveraged portfolio for each analyst based on his recommendations. For each "Buy" recommendation, the portfolio is one unit long the stock and simultaneously one unit short the benchmark. The result gives the analyst credit for the amount by which the stock outperformed the benchmark. "Strong Buys" get a larger investment of two units long the stock and two units short the benchmark. "Holds" invest one unit in the benchmark (i.e., for an excess return of zero). "Sells" are the reverse: long the benchmark and short the stock. "Strong Sells" get a larger investment of two units long the benchmark and short the stock. The portfolio return is opportunity adjusted to facilitate a fair comparison of analyst performance regardless of their coverage universe. The resulting portfolio is rebalanced each month and whenever the analyst adds coverage, drops coverage, or changes a rating. Qualification Criteria: To qualify for a 2009 Industry Stock Picking Award, an analyst must have met the following criteria:
Overall Stock Picking Awards go to the top ten qualifying analysts, based on overall excess return. To calculate overall excess return, StarMine uses the weighted average of each analyst's Industry Excess Returns, where weighting is based on the number of stocks the analyst covers in each industry. Qualification Criteria: To qualify for the overall stock-picking awards, analysts must have covered at least five stocks. In addition, StarMine requires analysts to have earned at least a 5-star rating on their overall coverage (i.e., for all industries covered), as measured by StarMine's Coverage-Relative Rating. Overview of Earnings Estimate Awards StarMine's proprietary metric, Single-stock Estimate Score (SES), measures the accuracy of each analyst's earnings forecasts. SES is a measure of relative accuracy; that is, analysts are compared against their peers. An analyst's SES can range from 0 to 100, with 50 representing the average analyst. To get a score higher than 50, an analyst must make estimates that are both significantly different from and more accurate than other analysts' estimates. SES takes into account many factors: the analyst's absolute forecast error, the analyst's error compared to other analysts, the variance of the analysts' errors, the timing of the estimates, and the absolute value of the actual earnings for the stock. SES is computed daily and aggregated to provide scores on individual stocks, industries (the Industry Estimate Score), and the analyst overall (the Overall Estimate Score). Industry Earnings Estimate Awards To determine the winners of Industry Earnings Estimate Awards, StarMine ranks qualifying analysts based on their Industry Estimate Score for the stocks in a specific industry. Qualification Criteria: To qualify for this ranking, an analyst must have had coverage on at least five stocks throughout 2008. If an industry has fewer than 15 stocks, an analyst must have covered a minimum of three stocks or 1/3 of the stocks in the industry, whichever is greater. Overall Earnings Estimate Awards The ten qualifying analysts with the highest Overall Estimate Scores earn StarMine's Overall Earnings Estimate Awards. Qualification Criteria: To qualify for StarMine's Top 10 list, an analyst must have had coverage on at least five stocks throughout 2008. Non-Participating Firms The following firm did not participate in StarMine's 2009 Annual Analyst Awards for the United Kingdom and Ireland: Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. |
Trophies: Place an order
The Sunday Times and StarMine Present the Top Analysts of 2009 for the United Kingdom and Ireland
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm | Industries |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | da Silva, Carla Antunes | J.P. Morgan | Banks & Financial Services |
| 2 | Pierce, Jonathan | Credit Suisse | Banks & Financial Services |
| 3 | Sullivan, Paul | BAS-ML | Media |
| 4 | Edelman, Nick | Cazenove | Hotels, Leisure & Restaurants |
| 5 | Baillie, John | SG Securities | Retail |
| 6 | Grzinic, James* | Dresdner Kleinwort | Retail |
| 7 | Brumby, Mark | Blue Oar Securities | Hotels, Leisure & Restaurants |
| 8 | Helliwell, Jonathan | Cazenove | Media |
| 9 | Cunningham, Nick | Evolution Securities | Equipment & Machinery |
| 10 | Spungin, Joel | BAS-ML | Consumer & Business Services |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm | Industries |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Numis Securities Aerospace & Defence Team | Numis Securities | Equipment & Machinery; Consumer & Business Services |
| 2 | Abedi, Asad | BAS-ML | Equipment & Machinery |
| 3 | Middleton, John | Cazenove | Equipment & Machinery |
| 4 | Stent, Jeff | Citi | Food & Household Products |
| 5 | Alsford, Michael* | Morgan Stanley | Energy |
| 6 | Hancock, David | Morgan Stanley | Consumer & Business Services; Hotels, Leisure & Restaurants |
| 7 | Musk, John | Nomura | Utilities |
| 8 | Copp-Barton, Joel* | Dresdner Kleinwort | Transportation |
| 9 | Corbett, Phil | Royal Bank of Scotland | Energy |
| 10 | Hilditch, Gillian | Cazenove | Retail |
Top Most Award-Winning Brokers
| Rank | Analyst | Number of Awards |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cazenove | 16 |
| 2 | BAS-ML | 11 |
| 3 | Citi | 9 |
| 4 | UBS | 8 |
| 5 | Royal Bank of Scotland | 7 |
| 6 | Credit Suisse | 5 |
| 6 | Deutsche Bank Securities | 5 |
| 6 | Dresdner Kleinwort | 5 |
| 6 | Morgan Stanley | 5 |
| 10 | Blue Oar Securities | 4 |
| 10 | Goldman Sachs | 4 |
| 10 | Nomura | 4 |
| 10 | Numis Securities | 4 |
Banks & Financial Services
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | da Silva, Carla Antunes | J.P. Morgan |
| 2 | Pierce, Jonathan | Credit Suisse |
| 3 | Webb, Abigail | Credit Suisse |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Goodwin, Leigh | Fox-Pitt Kelton Cochran Caronia Waller |
| 2 | Napier, Jason | Deutsche Bank Securities |
| 3 | Cazenove Financials Team | Cazenove |
Construction
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stockdale, Mark | UBS |
| 2 | Hooi, Karen | Goldman Sachs |
| 3 | Cammack, Kevin* | Kaupthing Singer & Friedlander |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jones, William | Royal Bank of Scotland |
| 2 | Waring, Rachael | Panmure Gordon |
| 3 | Lewis, Clyde | Citi |
Consumer & Business Services
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wright, Ed | Altium Securities |
| 2 | Brent, Joe* | Citi |
| 3 | Spungin, Joel | BAS-ML |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent, Joe* | Citi |
| 2 | Ripper, Andrew | BAS-ML |
| 3 | Gerry, Wayne* | Dresdner Kleinwort |
Energy
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Griffith, Richard | Evolution Securities |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alsford, Michael* | Morgan Stanley |
| 2 | Corbett, Phil | Royal Bank of Scotland |
| 3 | Copus, Jonathan | Deutsche Bank Securities |
Equipment & Machinery
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ashworth-Lord, Keith | W.H. Ireland |
| 2 | Fidler, Benjamin | Deutsche Bank Securities |
| 3 | Hoddes, Avi | UBS |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abedi, Asad | BAS-ML |
| 2 | Middleton, John | Cazenove |
| 3 | Numis Securities Aerospace & Defence Team | Numis Securities |
Food & Household Products
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mills, Charlie | Credit Suisse |
| 2 | Natixis Food & Household Team | Natixis Securities |
| 3 | Kelleher, Gavin* | Merrion Stockbrokers |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stent, Jeff | Citi |
| 2 | Dickinson, John | Brewin Dolphin |
| 3 | Barclay, Polly | Cazenove |
Health Care
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Campbell, Robin | Jefferies International |
| 2 | Xu, Zhining* | Seymour Pierce |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shan, Sahill and Glasper, Chris | Brewin Dolphin |
| 2 | Batstone-Carr, Jeremy | Charles Stanley & Company |
| 3 | Cazenove Health Care Team | Cazenove |
Hotels, Leisure & Restaurants
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edelman, Nick | Cazenove |
| 2 | Rennardson, Ian | BAS-ML |
| 3 | Brumby, Mark | Blue Oar Securities |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thomas, Nick | Royal Bank of Scotland |
| 2 | Lewis, Vaughan | Morgan Stanley |
| 3 | Reed, Mark* | Teathers Ltd |
Insurance
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Parsons, Joanna | Royal Bank of Scotland |
| 2 | Changazi, Fahad | Cazenove |
| 3 | Hitchings, Christopher | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stewart, Blair | BAS-ML |
| 2 | Firkins, Jonathan* | UBS |
| 3 | Cornes, Barrie | Panmure Gordon |
Media
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sullivan, Paul | BAS-ML |
| 2 | Tennant, Colin | Nomura |
| 3 | Helliwell, Jonathan | Cazenove |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Davies, Simon | Royal Bank of Scotland |
| 2 | Numis Securities Media Team | Numis Securities |
| 3 | Liechti, Steven | Investec |
Metals & Mining
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Watson, Keith | Evolution Securities |
| 2 | Huff, Tim | Royal Bank of Scotland |
| 3 | Sporre, Grant and Galloway, Paul* | UBS |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fitzpatrick, Liam | Citi |
| 2 | Sporre, Grant and Galloway, Paul* | UBS |
| 3 | Ravi, Ephrem | Morgan Stanley |
Real Estate
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cockburn, Miranda | Cazenove |
| 2 | Stokes, Harry* | Citi |
| 3 | Spearing, Chris* | BAS-ML |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fraser-Andrews, John | HSBC |
| 2 | Freeman, Quentin | UBS |
| 3 | Stokes, Harry* | Citi |
Retail
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Walker, Christopher | Nomura |
| 2 | Baillie, John | SG Securities |
| 3 | Grzinic, James* | Dresdner Kleinwort |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hilditch, Gillian | Cazenove |
| 2 | Patel, Mal* | BAS-ML |
| 3 | Macdougall, Ian | Blue Oar Securities |
Technology Equipment & Services
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Briest, Michael | UBS |
| 2 | Clark, Graeme | Piper Jaffray |
| 3 | Cazenove Technology Equipment & Services Team | Cazenove |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Numis Securities Technology Team | Numis Securities |
| 2 | Briest, Michael | UBS |
| 3 | James, Nick | Panmure Gordon |
Telecommunication Services
Top Stock Pickers
No analysts qualified for this industry's awards.Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Howard, Paul | Cazenove |
| 2 | Weeden, Simon* | Goldman Sachs |
| 3 | Groocock, Jonathan | Investec |
Transportation
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neal, Oliver | Goldman Sachs |
| 2 | McNeill, Douglas | Blue Oar Securities |
| 3 | Stanford, Edward | Cazenove |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Copp-Barton, Joel* | Dresdner Kleinwort |
| 2 | Reid, Chris** | Deutsche Bank Securities |
| 3 | Brewer, Damian | J.P. Morgan |
** This analyst is no longer active in our database.
Utilities
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mead, Andrew | Goldman Sachs |
| 2 | Turner, Iain | Deutsche Bank Securities |
| 3 | Mitchell, Verity | HSBC |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Musk, John | Nomura |
| 2 | Pollock, Colin* | Credit Suisse |
| 3 | Atherton, Peter | Citi |
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