Germany - 2010
Handelsblatt and StarMine Present Germany's Top Analysts of 2010
Handelsblatt and StarMine, a Thomson Reuters company, are pleased to announce the results of StarMine's 2010 annual survey of analyst performance for Germany. StarMine, the leading provider of objective ratings of securities analysts, measures analysts' performance based on the return of their stock recommendations and the accuracy of their earnings estimates. The 2010 StarMine Analyst Awards program utilizes the I/B/E/S system as its data source. The 2010 awards for Germany are based on the period January 1, 2009 through December 31, 2009.
Analyst Spotlight: Patrick Hummel
Patrick Hummel has been named the top Overall Stock Picker in the 2010 Analyst Awards for Germany. Hummel, who covers Diversified Industrials at UBS, made his best call on SMA Solar Technology (ticker: S92G.F), a manufacturer of photovoltaic inverters and monitoring systems. Hummel had a "Buy" on the firm for seven months as its share price gained 111% to beat its industry benchmark by an impressive 56%. Hummel's top ranking was also assisted by a lucrative downside call on Conergy (ticker: CGYG.F), which supplies an array of photovoltaic products including solar water pumps and solar thermal components. He had a "Sell" on Conergy for almost the full year as it fell by 69% and under-performed its industry peers by 83%.
Methodology: View our awards methodology
| StarMine Analyst Awards
Methodology |
|
| StarMine objectively measures
the performance of analysts based on the returns of their buy/sell
recommendations and the accuracy of their earnings estimates. The
2009 awards for Germany are based on the 2009 calendar-year
performance of recommendations and estimates on companies that are
based in Germany. Data Source StarMine's awards for Germany are based on the estimates and recommendations as recorded in the Thomson Financial I/B/E/S database. StarMine uses the GICS (Global Industry Classification System) for its industry definitions. In some instances in Germany, the GICS has resulted in industries that are not large enough for ranking purposes. When this has been the case, StarMine has combined multiple industries to reflect the way analysts organize their coverage for Germany. For example, StarMine's "Health Care" industry is a composite of the following GICS industries: Biotechnology, Health Care Equipment & Supplies, Health Care Providers & Services, Health Care Technology, Life Sciences Tools & Services, and Pharmaceuticals. Industry Stock Picking Awards Analysts are ranked according to their Industry Excess Return, computed from a portfolio simulation that measures each analyst relative to an industry-based benchmark. The top three qualifying analysts in each industry receive an award. Calculation of Industry Excess Return: All analyst returns are calculated relative to the return on a market capitalization-weighted portfolio of all of the stocks in a given industry. For comparison purposes, StarMine builds a non-leveraged portfolio for each analyst based on his recommendations. For each "Buy" recommendation, the portfolio is one unit long the stock and simultaneously one unit short the benchmark. The result gives the analyst credit for the amount by which the stock outperformed the benchmark. "Strong Buys" get a larger investment of two units long the stock and two units short the benchmark. "Holds" invest one unit in the benchmark (i.e., for an excess return of zero). "Sells" are the reverse: long the benchmark and short the stock. "Strong Sells" get a larger investment of two units long the benchmark and short the stock. The portfolio return is opportunity adjusted to facilitate a fair comparison of analyst performance regardless of their coverage universe. The resulting portfolio is rebalanced each month and whenever the analyst adds coverage, drops coverage, or changes a rating. Qualification Criteria: To qualify for a 2010 Industry Stock Picking Award, an analyst must have met the following criteria:
Overall Stock Picking Awards go to the top ten qualifying analysts, based on overall excess return. To calculate overall excess return, StarMine uses the weighted average of each analyst's Industry Excess Returns, where weighting is based on the number of stocks the analyst covers in each industry. Qualification Criteria: To qualify for the overall stock-picking awards, analysts must have covered at least five stocks. In addition, StarMine requires analysts to have earned at least a 5-star rating on their overall coverage (i.e., for all industries covered), as measured by StarMine's Coverage-Relative Rating. Overview of Earnings Estimate Awards StarMine's proprietary metric, Single-stock Estimate Score (SES), measures the accuracy of each analyst's earnings forecasts. SES is a measure of relative accuracy; that is, analysts are compared against their peers. An analyst's SES can range from 0 to 100, with 50 representing the average analyst. To get a score higher than 50, an analyst must make estimates that are both significantly different from and more accurate than other analysts' estimates. SES takes into account many factors: the analyst's absolute forecast error, the analyst's error compared to other analysts, the variance of the analysts' errors, the timing of the estimates, and the absolute value of the actual earnings for the stock. SES is computed daily and aggregated to provide scores on individual stocks, industries (the Industry Estimate Score), and the analyst overall (the Overall Estimate Score). Industry Earnings Estimate Awards To determine the winners of Industry Earnings Estimate Awards, StarMine ranks qualifying analysts based on their Industry Estimate Score for the stocks in a specific industry. Qualification Criteria: To qualify for this ranking, an analyst must have had coverage on at least five stocks throughout 2009. If an industry has fewer than 15 stocks, an analyst must have covered a minimum of three stocks or 1/3 of the stocks in the industry, whichever is greater. Overall Earnings Estimate Awards The ten qualifying analysts with the highest Overall Estimate Scores earn StarMine's Overall Earnings Estimate Awards. Qualification Criteria: To qualify for StarMine's Top 10 list, an analyst must have had coverage on at least five stocks throughout 2009. Top Ten Brokers The ten brokers whose analysts or research teams win the most individual analyst awards appear on the list of Top Ten Brokers. |
Trophies: Place an order
Handelsblatt and StarMine Present Germany's Top Analysts of 2010
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm | Industries |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hummel, Patrick | UBS | Diversified Industrials |
| 2 | Dürr, Matthias | DZ Bank | Financial Services |
| 3 | Aust, Christian | UniCredit Markets & Investment Banking | Automobiles; Diversified Industrials |
| 4 | Bruns, Christian* | Oppenheim Research** | Consumer Goods & Services |
| 5 | Häßler, Philipp | equinet (ESN Partnership) | Financial Services; Insurance |
| 6 | Schellmoser, Friedrich | UniCredit Markets & Investment Banking | Diversified Industrials; Media |
| 7 | Schramm, Robert | Commerzbank Securities | Diversified Industrials |
| 8 | Dunst, Michael | Commerzbank Securities | Financial Services |
| 9 | Schachel, Ingo-Martin | Commerzbank Securities | Diversified Industrials |
| 10 | Sengül, Hasim | DZ Bank | Financial Services |
** Became Macquarie Research Equities 01-Apr-10
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm | Industries |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kleibauer, Thilo | M.M. Warburg/SES Research | Consumer Goods & Services |
| 2 | Heimburger, Hans-Joachim | CA Cheuvreux | Diversified Industrials |
| 3 | Oppenheim Research Capital Goods Team | Oppenheim Research* | Diversified Industrials |
| 4 | Cohrs, Gunnar | Berenberg Bank | Health Care; Chemicals; Diversified Industrials |
| 5 | Gabriel, Marc | Bankhaus Lampe | Diversified Industrials; Chemicals; Automobiles |
| 6 | Thomas, Cornelia | WestLB Capital Markets | Health Care |
| 7 | Turnwald, Markus | DZ Bank | Diversified Industrials |
| 8 | Benson, Stephen | Goldman Sachs | Diversified Industrials |
| 9 | Heinold, Andreas | Landesbank Baden-Württemberg | Telecommunication Services; Software & Services; Media |
| 10 | Kuhn, Michael | Deutsche Bank Securities | Consumer Goods & Services; Diversified Industrials |
Top Most Award-Winning Brokers
| Rank | Analyst | Number of Awards |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oppenheim Research* | 10 |
| 2 | DZ Bank | 9 |
| 3 | M.M. Warburg/SES Research | 8 |
| 4 | Commerzbank Securities | 7 |
| 5 | Equinet (ESN Partnership) | 6 |
| 6 | Bankhaus Metzler | 5 |
| 7 | Bankhaus Lampe | 4 |
| 7 | Landesbank Baden-Württemberg | 4 |
| 7 | WestLB Capital Markets | 4 |
| 10 | BHF-Bank | 3 |
| 10 | CA Cheuvreux | 3 |
| 10 | HSBC | 3 |
| 10 | UniCredit Markets & Investment Banking | 3 |
Automobiles
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lawson, John | Citi Investment Research |
| 2 | Pieper, Jürgen | Bankhaus Metzler |
| 3 | Oppenheim Research Automotive Team | Oppenheim Research* |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pieper, Jürgen | Bankhaus Metzler |
| 2 | Schneider, Horst | HSBC |
| 3 | Tonn, Marc-Rene | M.M. Warburg/SES Research |
Chemicals
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weber, Annett | BHF-Bank |
| 2 | Wörner, Ulle | Landesbank Baden-Württemberg |
| 3 | Rödiger, Martin | CA Cheuvreux |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gabriel, Marc | Bankhaus Lampe |
| 2 | Hettche, Lars | Bankhaus Metzler |
| 3 | Grüten, Lutz | Kepler Capital Markets |
Consumer Goods & Services
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bruns, Christian* | Oppenheim Research** |
| 2 | Kränzle, Klaus | GSC Research |
| 3 | Frey, Jorg* | Oppenheim Research** |
** Became Macquarie Research Equities 01-Apr-10
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kleibauer, Thilo | M.M. Warburg/SES Research |
| 2 | Frey, Jörg* | Oppenheim Research** |
| 3 | Burkhardt, Tim | Landesbank Baden-Württemberg |
** Became Macquarie Research Equities 01-Apr-10
Diversified Industrials
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hummel, Patrick | UBS |
| 2 | Growe, Sebastian | equinet (ESN Partnership) |
| 3 | Schramm, Robert | Commerzbank Securities |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oppenheim Research Capital Goods Team | Oppenheim Research* |
| 2 | Turnwald, Markus | DZ Bank |
| 3 | Heimbürger, Hans-Joachim | CA Cheuvreux |
Energy
Top Stock Pickers
No analysts qualified for this industry's awards.Top Earnings Estimators
No analysts qualified for this industry's awards.Financial Services
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Häßler, Philipp | equinet (ESN Partnership) |
| 2 | Dürr, Matthias | DZ Bank |
| 3 | Rohrbach, Constantin | Nord Landesbank |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Schmitt, Jochen | Bankhaus Metzler |
| 2 | Neumann, Frank | Bankhaus Lampe |
| 3 | Kanders, Georg | WestLB Capital Markets |
Health Care
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orquera, Christian | First Berlin |
| 2 | Gasteyger, Stephan* | Piper Jaffray |
| 3 | Peter, Christian | Oppenheim Research** |
** Became Macquarie Research Equities 01-Apr-10
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thomas, Cornelia | WestLB Capital Markets |
| 2 | Bissinger, Michael | DZ Bank |
| 3 | Possienke, Martin & Aubery, Edouard | equinet (ESN Partnership) |
Insurance
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gorlt, Thilo* | BHF-Bank |
| 2 | Pfänder, Roland | Commerzbank Securities |
| 3 | Dibbern, Ralf* | M.M. Warburg/SES Research |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gorlt, Thilo* | BHF-Bank |
| 2 | Mazzuoli, Robert | Landesbank Baden-Württemberg |
| 3 | Hamann, Christian | Hamburger Sparkasse (Haspa) |
IT Equipment
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Schupp, Uwe | Deutsche Bank Securities |
| 2 | Schnitzer, Harald | DZ Bank |
| 3 | Schaumann, Malte | M.M. Warburg/SES Research |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Schaumann, Malte | M.M. Warburg/SES Research |
| 2 | Steffen, Heinz | CB Seydler Research |
Media
Top Stock Pickers
No analysts qualified for this industry's awards.Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heider, Harald | DZ Bank |
Software & IT Services
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Schuh, Catherine & Pehl, Adrian | equinet (ESN Partnership) |
| 2 | Trabert, Ulrich | Bankhaus Metzler |
| 3 | Wolf, Andreas | M.M. Warburg/SES Research |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Schuh, Catherine & Pehl, Adrian | equinet (ESN Partnership) |
Telecommunication Services
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oppenheim Research TMT Team | Oppenheim Research* |
| 2 | Reichert, Jochen | M.M. Warburg/SES Research |
| 3 | Pauls, Heike | Commerzbank Securities |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oppenheim Research TMT Team | Oppenheim Research* |
| 2 | Klarmann, Dominik | HSBC |
Utilities
Top Stock Pickers
No analysts qualified for this industry's awards.Top Earnings Estimators
No analysts qualified for this industry's awards.Best Performance on Real Estate
Top Stock Pickers
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sengül, Hasim | DZ Bank |
| 2 | Martin, Thomas | HSBC |
| 3 | Sawazki, Burkhard | Commerzbank Securities |
Top Earnings Estimators
| Rank | Analyst | Firm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neumann, Frank | Bankhaus Lampe |
| 2 | Kanders, Georg | WestLB Capital Markets |
| 3 | Remke, Andre | UniCredit Markets & Investment Banking |
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